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Excellent Behavior

Betting lightly raced and developing three year old colts with impeccable pedigrees is like sipping Jamaican rum. ...it's so smooth you better watch out. This year's Derby could give you a headache.

Dominican and friends nailed a 93 Beyer in the Blue Grass. Add it to the pace of the race and you have a pathetic Slow-Slow pace shape. Dom loves those pace shapes. Down in quirky Hot Springs, a place I happen to love, Curlin kicked out a 103 Beyer along with a pace of the race that was Slow 4 -that's a Slow-Average pace shape. He pressed a slow pace and the rest is history. Typical. But it looks impressive so he'll be the Derby favorite and probably the money burner.

For the next 18 days we'll be inundated with polytrack theories and tales. Are the jockeys playing "turf rider" on the Keeneland polytrack or has the polytrack mystery bias revealed itself finally? Truth or misperception? Will the Blue Grass be the first dirt/turf race in history? Well, if it is then there will be something to remember about the proceedings.

And then there's poor Tiago, the half brother to Giacomo. He got accused of being the recipient of a fast pace, which put him in the winner's circle just like his phony half brother. That's what the pundits say, anyway. But the pace of that race was not a melt down swifty; it was a Slow 1. The kid won it fair and square and put an Average-Average pace shape in the books. But Giacomo has a very big shadow.

Circle Quay, Cowtown Cat, Any Given Staurday, Great Hunter, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy, and Street Sense are waiting in the wings. When average meets average anything can happen.

I'll have some Jamaican rum on hand Derby Day. The effects of some pretty fast sipping should product some pretty excellent behavior....like ignoring skimpy odds and swinging for the fence.