We will always lose more than we win. Thank goodness for odds. So I don't want you think that the examples I write about happen like clock work. They don't. I could post many examples that didn't work out. Having said that I want to show you a pace picture. It's an aberration. It's the reason I preach pace picture doodling all the time. Let's zoom out now. Here it is:
In this pace picture which horse are you going to start your analysis with? Well, I'm going to start and end with the P/C4.
The pace picture dynamic is now in focus. Let's add the secondary factors.
1. Lone Presser Closer (For some reason they do well. They're in stress free zones, I think.)
2. One of the top 2 speed figures in the race. Both earned against a par pace. They were real.
3. The horse even finished in the money last race.
This one paid $20.40! Go figure. The E6 (had the top speed figure) took all the money even though a pace aberration was afoot.
Okay. Here's what I've found out about these late running "carpetbaggers". I better demand a good price if I intend to stay solvent in the carpetbagger column. I like to start at 6/1. They'll run 2nd and 3rd until you're in a state of serious vertigo. But when a late pace aberration shows up and the secondary factors are in place along with very attractive odds you've just stumbled upon one of the best bets in racing. You might not bat but .200 but you'll stay in the black (.20 X 6 - .80 = .40).
BTW, the race was at Bay Meadows on Thursday 19, 2007 (Hey, that's today). Race #3. Running Rich, #3.
Disclaimer: Betting P/Cs, even in extreme pace aberration situations, can cause mental confusion and dizziness. Strokes have not been reported but that doesn't mean you shouldn't be careful. So please exercise extreme caution from quarter pole to finish.
Please note: Most, if not all, of the articles I write have the new racing enthusiast in mind. I am haunted by a phrase I read years ago. I can't remember who said it but it goes something like this, "..... a demonstrable, recognizable advantage....". That's the only time to play a race. For me, pace aberrations are those "demonstrable, recognizable advantages".
And........You could make a case that the horse was a contender just on the secondary factors alone and an overlay to boot, therefore a play. You would have a good point. You would also take on many unnecessary losses.And finally........There's more Derby talk ahead.