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Late Pace Advantage (A Sad Story)

I want to show you how stupid a player can be, ME! At Hawthorne yesterday I learned a few lessons. As you probably know by now I specialize in extreme paceaberrations. I look high and low every single day for those gems. They're not plentiful so I have to pay attention. Say it again, pay attention. Here's the pace picture for the 6th race at Hawthorne yesterday:

E/P5
E/P8
E/P7
E/P8
—————-P/C2
—————-P/C3

The Pace Pressure Gauge read 28 X 0 so I began my analysis with the late pace runners. There were two as you can see. I told you the other day that I love lightly raced 3 or 4 year olds. The P/C3 fit the bill. Right about there is where my focus lead me astray.

Lesson #1 : Don't be so married to a perspective that another opportunity is missed.

My good thing was the favorite. The ML 5/2 ended up going off at 8/5. That's a pass. And I did. Lightly raced 3/4 year olds that are P/Cs get a pass on my6/1 rule for that type of running style. I will accept 5/2 but no less. But what about the other pace advantaged horse, the other P/C? Yeah, the mare fit the profile. But wait, she had won only 3 races out of 50 starts and finished second or third 28 times!

Lesson #2: Secondary factors are, well, secondary to pace picture match ups.

She won and paid $16.20. She came running late. No surprise. She was in the right place at the right time to make it number 4 in the win column. Get this, she was the top speed figure in the field.

Lesson # 3: Don't be a dumbass. Pay attention in class.

After a race has been run anyone can find a reason the winning horse SHOULD have been bet, woulda, coulda, shoulda. Not so with pace pictures. It's right there in front of you, your before hand race projection. So you DO know the reason a horse won, it had a pace advantage.

Lesson #4: Learn from your mistakes and then let it go bro.