Class + Pace = $$$
Print Version
Put this information in a 2D Early Pace Box and watch the magic. You can read about that important pace box here. I posted this article a few weeks ago but the pace box addition needed to be emphasized.
This year has been a good one. Here’s how. It’s called the CPL/CP/FFR 3+/CSFR/PCZ 5.0 Limit. I’ll explain in a minute. First, let’s just say I’m a profile fanatic. You could call the profiles equations, too. When they appear and the price is right I’m a happy person. I know over time I’m in the money, the black. This one that I’m about to tell you about has been in my profile book for 20 years. It’s still a nice return on investment producer. Now for the explanation one part at a time.
CPL – I call this one the class profile on the lead. Actually, the horse doesn’t have to be on the lead at the pace call but it’s usually leading at the wire. It’s on the lead where it counts. This horse must have a 2 dimensional early pace running style with 5 or more speed points; no more than 7 points. So it looks like this: E/P 5-7. I don’t use 8 speed points because too many times these types need to lead at the pace call. That’s a little risky for our purposes. Now this E/P 5-7 needs to be dropping in today’s race to its lowest claiming price out of the last three races. That’s easy enough. At the end of I’ll give you the twelve reasons that will eliminate this one from further consideration. This one must qualify on CSFR and PCZ limit 5.0…I’ll explain those in a minute.
CP – Any horse that is dropping to its lowest claiming price out of its last three races gets this designation. Just like above but aren’t E/P 5-7 types. No one dimensional early pace horses (E) or closers (C) are considered.
The Form Factor Rating – The Form Factor Rating is made up of 8 factors, which includes improving form patterns, jockey/trainer combo stats, single jockey stats and single trainer stats. The higher the number the better. The highest rating is 8; you won’t see many of these but you will see 5s and 6s, which should grab your attention when numbers are no higher than 3. In competitive races, those races with more than 3 CSFR qualifiers, you’ll find this rating a helpful tool with odds assessment. For example, in a recent race the favorite had a FFR of 3 and was 6/5 one minute to post; another contender with a FFR of 5 won the race and paid $11.20. You’ll find situations like this one often, which should answer any questions about anecdotal outcomes. You’ll also see a lot of races with clustered ratings in the 2 and 3 neighborhood, no real advantage. I look for horses with pace advantages, which includes extreme pace and pace box advantages, that have the best or one of the best FFRs in the race. Please remember that the lower the odds the more risk management we need; the Form Factor Rating will be a useful tool in that area. For example, I will wager on a pace advantaged horse with a relatively low FFR if the odds are excellent – not with mush races and low odds, however. The general rule is this: the lower the odds the higher the FFR should be; the higher the odds then relatively low FFRs are acceptable. As with every handicapping tool, they are the most useful when building contender lists and assessing odds. Well, that’s the definition of the Form Factor Rating in general play. For our purposes here we just need to remember the we need a FFR of 3 or more. Simple.
CSFR – Competitive Speed Figure Range qualifier. In the PaceAppraiser PPs these horses have speed figures in bold type. It simply means that these bold type horses have shown the ability to be competitive in today’s race final time wise. They’re fast enough to compete with today’s field.
PCZ Limit 5.0 – Pace Comfort Zone Limited to 5 lengths. For an explanation of this one see the post below in this blog. We want horses that can stay in touch with the pace setters. That’s why we have the 5.0 PCZ limit.
Here are the deal breakers:
1. No maiden or stakes races
2. No horses with 2 layoff lines in their last three races. You’ll see the lines in the PaceAppraiser PPs.
3. No long layoffs of three months or more unless the odds are above 5/1.
4. No drops below a claimed tag in last three races.
5. No unsupported turf speed figures. If the last three races were turf races then we need a dirt speed figure in bold type (CSFR).
6. No economically unsound class drops. For example, a horse drops from 25K to 5K. Beware of damaged goods!
7. No confirmed losers. 1 for 28, 2 for 36, etc. Who needs it?
8. No repeat drops in class without improvement. Drop, drop, drop…will today’s drop help? Probably not.
9. No cheaper tracks than host track.
10. No distance problems. Presser/closers stretching out, etc.
11. No races shorter than 5 furlongs or longer than 1 1/16.
12. No winners in last three races. Why drop?
I’m a simulcast player. I look all over the country for these types. It’s a terrific spot play. Since I don’t have time to do full dress handicapping at every track every day (who does), this is a great way to be involved at those other tracks without all the work. Here’s some good news. As you click through the races in your PaceAppraiser PPs, you can place your mouse pointer over each bold type horse in the pace picture and you’ll get the Form Factor Rating and the PCZ rating. If you find a potential qualifier, drop down and check it for class and the elimination rules. Don’t forget to click the Header option in the Java menu so that the header and the pace picture stay in view as you scroll down to check your potential play. It’s fast and simple.
Beat the Maidens
Print Version
I’m interested in an automatic bet. A friend sent me an article on the topic and so I’m thinking about it again. Depending on the player or misanthropist you talk to a research sample size must be anywhere from a couple hundred to a million zillion before the results can be trusted. Even at the million zillion level don’t get too carried away, they say, you’ll only be disappoint. I fall somewhere in the middle. I’ve done enough research to know that an apparent good thing can turn south very quickly even if a sample size goes just the other side of twenty. On the other hand, I’ve carried out research samples into the hundreds and then took that data and added it to my handicapping toolkit. The competitive speed figure range is one example of research in the hundreds that has held up well into the thousands, and few more thousand to boot. The IVs are solid still. I use the results of that early research with confidence today. But I want to know if there is something about a racehorse’s ability that is based on the fundamentals so strongly, so solidly that sample size talk is replaced with fundamental ability type discussions. I think there is.
So now we’re back to the questions I’ve been pondering about maidens. Here they are: Can we agree that maidens have not won a single race (no insult intended)? Can we agree that a horse that ran in the money is in decent form? Can we agree that recent form should be part of our decision making process? Can we agree that a horse that has one of the top three speed figures is one of the top three fastest horses in the race based on their last outing? Can we agree that a last race speed figure should be part of our decision making process? Can we agree that a fast pace race is superior to a slow pace race when the winning horses post the same speed figure (E, E/P & P only) as in Fast 5/100 and Slow 5/100? Can we agree that these questions are fundamentally solid? If you answered yes to each of these questions then I have good news for you, and you won’t have to worry about sample size.
Let’s give it a formula: Maiden Race + Key Pace + $ + 3/S = A maiden race with a horse out of a Fast 5+ pace race and finished in the money and has one of the top three speed figures in the field. That’s a horse with a lot going for it. Here are the results of run I did lately.
1. 2 (9.20 to place)
2. 5.40
3. 3.00
4. 4th
5. Out of the money
6. 2 (2.90 to place)
7. Out of the money
8. 13.80
9. 9.00
10. 8.40
11. 5.00
12. 3.40
13. 2 (7.00 to place)
14. 9.40
15. Out of the money
As you can see, we have a couple of odds on winners and two second place finishers that paid a very nice price. I added those because you might be a win and place bettor. I’ll let you do the ROI math.
That’s it. I’ve played these basic factors for years and with success. Maybe you believe a million zillion sample size is appropriate, though. That’s fine. Follow it and see what you find. As for me, I’m playing maidens today.
Horses to Watch for March 5
List of 26 horses to watch for today from AQU, BEU, DED, FG, GG, GP, HAW, HOU, LRL, OP, PEN, SA, TAM, and TP. Download PDF. (Right click save as or click file to open in browser)
PaceAppraiserWatchMarch 5 |
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Pace Velocity and the Final Fraction
Print Version
Today I want to talk a bit about the adjusted speed figure that’s included in the PA PPs. I received a letter, not an email, about it, and so it occurred to me the adjusted figure is not well understood. That’s my fault. The jest of the letter was this: All well respected writers of handicapping books know that final time is slow if the pace is fast; conversely, the final time is fast is the pace is slow. So the multipliers that I included in Extreme Pace Handicapping were misleading. Well, my response is this: Not always. Here’s why. On many occasions I’ve seen a 1:10.4, say, six furlong final time (on the same day) have two different pace times. One could be a 44.8 and the other a 45.4. That’s 3/5ths of a second difference. Different pace times but the same final time. Now if the average pace time for a 1:10.4 at this track and distance is 45 flat then the first one was 1/5th of a second faster than par and the second one was 2/5ths of a second slower than what’s average for that particular final time. The final time in the example above was arrived at in two different ways. When we look at the problem in terms of pace shapes we’ll understand why this happens and why it’s not problem. A pace shape is like a seesaw, one goes up the other goes down, but not necessarily with final time, only the final fraction! So there’s an inverse relationship between pace and the final fraction – but can be true of pace and final time outside of a certain pace velocity range. When we look at pace and final fraction there are only three possible pace shapes, average/average, slow/fast, and fast/slow (we’re talking about pace of race not pace of the horse). As I said, not necessarily with final time. And there’s the letter writer’s oversight. Pace does not effect final time unless it’s extremely fast or slow.
So the adjusted speed figures tell us that if the pace of the race was evenly paced, average, then this is the figure a horse could run. Could is a very important word. It means nothing unless we relate that figure to the pace picture match-up. The Lone Early, Lone 2D Early, 2D Early, and Lone Presser (see Pace Boxes) are the pace boxes that tell us that this could figure is in play. These pace boxes have been designed with that simple concept in mind. And that’s the reason that the range I mentioned above is so important. For example, a Fast 3 or Slow 3 don’t really mean anything much. It’s when those pace of the race velocity ratings (PVR on your PA PPs) exceed that range that they become important. They have been adjusted to reflect the writer’s concern about slow pace/fast final time, fast pace/slow final time. So the writer was right some what, but we must remember that that’s only true outside of a certain range of pace velocities that are in the extreme – extremely fast, extremely slow.
And finally, get your brain twister hat on, that’s the case for me anyway: The adjusted speed figure is not designed to adjust Beyer or BRIS brands to reflect the extreme effects of pace (I’m sure you’ve noticed that the speed figure increases when the pace is fast and decreases with the pace is slow) but rather the speed figure a horse could run if the pace of the race comes up average or, you could say, the race is run evenly. And that’s the reason I put so much emphasis on the pace picture that’s embedded in the PA PPs. Those pace boxes give us the best chance of that could figure. When you see a breakout adjusted speed figure (over the competitive speed figure range), well, now you know.
By the way, I really like challenges when the rules of critical thinking are abided by because I get to rethink all of this stuff and make changes if necessary. The letter writer was very courteous and presented his argument succinctly and professionally. I appreciate that. I’m always open to criticism as long as those rules are in place. That’s what makes learning so much fun for me. And there’s still plenty to learn, and that’s why I’m still in the game.
Longshot for March 2
Print Version
Philadelphia – Race 2 – #5 Swing Lane – ML 12/1 (Late pace advantage – No go if there are any scratches) Had a scratch for a no go. Late pace advantage disappeared!
Maiden Claiming Play of the Day
Print Version
Race Cancelled
Fair Grounds – Monday, March 1
Race 10
#1 Stretch O’brien – ML 9/2
