CPL/CP/FFR 3+/CSFR/PCZ 5.0 Limit

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The month of January has been a good one. Here’s how. It’s called the CPL/CP/FFR 3+/CSFR/PCZ 5.0 Limit. I’ll explain in a minute. First, let’s just say I’m a profile fanatic. You could call the profiles equations, too. When they appear and the price is right I’m a happy person. I know over time I’m in the money, the black. This one that I’m about to tell you about has been in my profile book for 20 years. It’s still a nice return on investment producer. Now for the explanation one part at a time.

CPL – I call this one the class profile on the lead. Actually, the horse doesn’t have to be on the lead at the pace call but it’s usually leading at the wire. It’s on the lead where it counts. This horse must have a 2 dimensional early pace running style with 5 or more speed points; no more than 7 points. So it looks like this: E/P 5-7. I don’t use 8 speed points because too many times these types need to lead at the pace call. That’s a little risky for our purposes. Now this E/P 5-7 needs to be dropping in today’s race to its lowest claiming price out of the last three races. That’s easy enough. At the end of I’ll give you the twelve reasons that will eliminate this one from further consideration. This one must qualify on CSFR and PCZ limit 5.0…I’ll explain those in a minute.

CP – Any horse that is dropping to its lowest claiming price out of its last three races gets this designation. Just like above but aren’t E/P 5-7 types. No one dimensional early pace horses (E) or closers (C) are considered.

The Form Factor Rating – The Form Factor Rating is made up of 8 factors, which includes improving form patterns, jockey/trainer combo stats, single jockey stats and single trainer stats. The higher the number the better. The highest rating is 8; you won’t see many of these but you will see 5s and 6s, which should grab your attention when numbers are no higher than 3. In competitive races, those races with more than 3 CSFR qualifiers, you’ll find this rating a helpful tool with odds assessment. For example, in a recent race the favorite had a FFR of 3 and was 6/5 one minute to post; another contender with a FFR of 5 won the race and paid $11.20. You’ll find situations like this one often, which should answer any questions about anecdotal outcomes. You’ll also see a lot of races with clustered ratings in the 2 and 3 neighborhood, no real advantage. I look for horses with pace advantages, which includes extreme pace and pace box advantages, that have the best or one of the best FFRs in the race. Please remember that the lower the odds the more risk management we need; the Form Factor Rating will be a useful tool in that area. For example, I will wager on a pace advantaged horse with a relatively low FFR if the odds are excellent – not with mush races and low odds, however. The general rule is this: the lower the odds the higher the FFR should be; the higher the odds then relatively low FFRs are acceptable. As with every handicapping tool, they are the most useful when building contender lists and assessing odds. Well, that’s the definition of the Form Factor Rating in general play. For our purposes here we just need to remember the we need a FFR of 3 or more. Simple.

CSFR – Competitive Speed Figure Range qualifier. In the PaceAppraiser PPs these horses have speed figures in bold type. It simply means that these bold type horses have shown the ability to be competitive in today’s race final time wise. They’re fast enough to compete with today’s field.

PCZ Limit 5.0 – Pace Comfort Zone Limited to 5 lengths. For an explanation of this one see the post below in this blog. We want horses that can stay in touch with the pace setters. That’s why we have the 5.0 PCZ limit.

Here are the deal breakers:

1. No maiden or stakes races
2. No horses with 2 layoff lines in their last three races. You’ll see the lines in the PaceAppraiser PPs.
3. No long layoffs of three months or more unless the odds are above 5/1.
4. No drops below a claimed tag in last three races.
5. No unsupported turf speed figures. If the last three races were turf races then we need a dirt speed figure in bold type (CSFR).
6. No economically unsound class drops. For example, a horse drops from 25K to 5K. Beware of damaged goods!
7. No confirmed losers. 1 for 28, 2 for 36, etc. Who needs it?
8. No repeat drops in class without improvement. Drop, drop, drop…will today’s drop help? Probably not.
9. No cheaper tracks than host track.
10. No distance problems. Presser/closers stretching out, etc.
11. No races shorter than 5 furlongs or longer than 1 1/16.
12. No winners in last three races. Why drop?

I’m a simulcast player. I look all over the country for these types. It’s a terrific spot play. Since I don’t have time to do full dress handicapping at every track every day (who does), this is a great way to be involved at those other tracks without all the work. Here’s some good news. As you click through the races in your PaceAppraiser PPs, you can place your mouse pointer over each bold type horse in the pace picture and you’ll get the Form Factor Rating and the PCZ rating. If you find a potential qualifier, drop down and check it for class and the elimination rules. Don’t forget to click the Header option in the Java menu so that the header and the pace picture stay in view as you scroll down to check your potential play. It’s fast and simple.

Now here’s the real good news. So far this month I’ve found 55 qualifiers that produced an ROI of 70.4%! Seriously though, I don’t expect that ROI to last; it’s little high. But I do expect it to produce 25% long haul. That’s what my research tells me. I’ll take it.

February 2, 2010 • Posted in: Articles

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