When three powerful factors come together…

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One of my favor pastimes is post-mortem analysis. Take a pile of PPs and look for magic keys. Now the cynic will say there are no magic keys in horse racing, and anybody with half a brain can go back and find stuff that works AFTER the race has been run. But there are, really, and they hold up over time because they’re based on fundamentals, not horsey angles, real fundamentals. Here’s one that has three components – pace match-up, turf breeding, and hidden improving form.

If you have the PPs handy for September 3 of this year at Monmouth, check out race number 4, horse number 6. Go find the PPs for that race before we go on…

Ok. You’re back.

The race was a MdSpWt on the turf, good. Eight of the 11 horses had established a running style. The early pace pressure was on the light side, good. Now…

Let’s go looking for a 1st or 2nd time starter on the turf that has good turf breeding and will be comfortable with the pace match-up. And let’s add an improving form pattern because
we know a horse is not much good to us if its out of form, bad form.

Hmmm….hmmmm…….hmmmm….ok….Why West, number 6 – has all three …Presser, OX form pattern, turf breeding. Let’s go through each one:

E/P5     P0     P/C4     C2
E/P7     P4     P/C0
             P3

The P4 is our filly, and she has a comfortable pace set up, it’s light.

Now look at the form pattern that I call OX. Third start off a layoff, good race (in the money) and bad race last race. So OX = 3rd start off layoff, good race/bad race. Got it.

Now for the turf breeding fundamental. The Sire Pulpit has a B Turf Sire Rating by Jim Mazur and Mike Helm. That’s a good one!

Let’s add them together: pace match-up is comfortable, improving form pattern is OX, and turf breeding is a B rating. The fundamentals equal three.

Winner – $25.60!

Yeah, yeah, yeah. The horse won THAT race but will that threesome win again. Well, check it out and see for yourself. Maybe you’re already doing this. Then you know what I’m
talking about. If not, well, check it out.

February 3, 2010 • Posted in: Articles

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