The Bias

and the flyboy lunatic

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Well, the last newsletter created a bit of a controversy. Some folks simply thought I was a fly-boy lunatic for questioning ratings such as an obvious phenomenon called a track/dirt bias. And then there were some “way to go” folks out there, too. I hit the nail squarely on the head, they said. I really wish we could draw trend-lines across independent events/trials because I would love to know when to shoot for longshots. After a couple of days of favorites winning the majority of races, the next day should be prime for longshots, don’t you think? After all, favorites win approximately 33% of the time and so there has to be a correction somewhere in the longer odds category in order to maintain the 33% figure, you see. I could draw a favorites trend-line on an ongoing basis and then every time a day has, say, 4 favorites that win it would make perfect sense to concentrate on longshots the next day, right? I could sell Favorite Correction Ratings. Well, you get the idea. Those kinds of things don’t work with independent events. Anyway, I enjoyed the many emails I received, good and bad, for and against. Tea leaves, I Ching, Bias Ratings – if you think it works for you then by all means put it to use. The teller’s window is always the final judge.

February 9, 2010 • Posted in: Articles

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