Beat the Maidens

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I’m interested in an automatic bet. A friend sent me an article on the topic and so I’m thinking about it again. Depending on the player or misanthropist you talk to a research sample size must be anywhere from a couple hundred to a million zillion before the results can be trusted. Even at the million zillion level don’t get too carried away, they say, you’ll only be disappoint. I fall somewhere in the middle. I’ve done enough research to know that an apparent good thing can turn south very quickly even if a sample size goes just the other side of twenty. On the other hand, I’ve carried out research samples into the hundreds and then took that data and added it to my handicapping toolkit. The competitive speed figure range is one example of research in the hundreds that has held up well into the thousands, and few more thousand to boot. The IVs are solid still. I use the results of that early research with confidence today. But I want to know if there is something about a racehorse’s ability that is based on the fundamentals so strongly, so solidly that sample size talk is replaced with fundamental ability type discussions. I think there is.

So now we’re back to the questions I’ve been pondering about maidens. Here they are: Can we agree that maidens have not won a single race (no insult intended)? Can we agree that a horse that ran in the money is in decent form? Can we agree that recent form should be part of our decision making process? Can we agree that a horse that has one of the top three speed figures is one of the top three fastest horses in the race based on their last outing? Can we agree that a last race speed figure should be part of our decision making process? Can we agree that a fast pace race is superior to a slow pace race when the winning horses post the same speed figure (E, E/P & P only) as in Fast 5/100 and Slow 5/100? Can we agree that these questions are fundamentally solid? If you answered yes to each of these questions then I have good news for you, and you won’t have to worry about sample size.

Let’s give it a formula: Maiden Race + Key Pace + $ + 3/S = A maiden race with a horse out of a Fast 5+ pace race and finished in the money and has one of the top three speed figures in the field. That’s a horse with a lot going for it. Here are the results of run I did lately.

1. 2 (9.20 to place)
2. 5.40
3. 3.00
4. 4th
5. Out of the money
6. 2 (2.90 to place)
7. Out of the money
8. 13.80
9. 9.00
10. 8.40
11. 5.00
12. 3.40
13. 2 (7.00 to place)
14. 9.40
15. Out of the money

As you can see, we have a couple of odds on winners and two second place finishers that paid a very nice price. I added those because you might be a win and place bettor. I’ll let you do the ROI math.

That’s it. I’ve played these basic factors for years and with success. Maybe you believe a million zillion sample size is appropriate, though. That’s fine. Follow it and see what you find. As for me, I’m playing maidens today.

March 6, 2010 • Posted in: Articles

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