The Dominator

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If you’ve been reading my articles for any length of time, you know I enjoy reporting on research I’m involved in. I present them, usually with a 100+ race sample behind them, so that you can follow them if you please. The results of one hundred races is not anywhere near enough to get crazy about but it’s a good place to start if you’re interested. Many of them are variations of the things I’ve researched and now back with money every day.

I never bet a horse unless I recognize a profile I’ve researched and named. I give them names like the Clever Thief, the Bandit, the Embezzler, the Banker, the Pickpocket, the Carpetbagger, the Con Artist, the Slum Lord, the Grifter, the Ponzi. And I know the kind of race (stage) where each one excels – which I call Mush Races, Key Pace Races, etc. I pay absolutely no attention to trainers, jockeys, track biases and the rest – all the secondary information. The horses I play must be improving and have demonstrated the ability to record a par speed figure for today’s level and they must have the ability to handle a fast pace and they must fit today’s match-up. Just this morning I went through 7 – it takes about 3 ½ hours – tracks and didn’t find one play. I’m writing this instead of playing. As I’ve said before, if I can’t find “a demonstrable, recognizable advantage” (I don’t know who owns those words but they’re good) then I’d rather do something else or give the money Jerry’s kids.

So let’s name one and follow it. We’ll call this one the Dominator. Sounds powerful.

The Musts:
1. I require the Dominator to have 5 to 8 Quirin speed points
2. S/he must have an E or E/P running style
3. Today’s race must be the first or second start after a layoff of at least 30 days but no more than 60 days
4. Our Dominator must be in the money in one of its last two races
5. Must be “up close” at the pace call in its last race (less than 3 lengths for sprints and 5 lengths for routes)
6. Last race must have a Fast 1 pace of the race velocity rating (My software gives you that info or you can construct it for yourself. It’s an important step because we don’t want to support horses coming out of slow pace races)
7. One dimensional early pace horses (E) must be pure, which is to say they must be the only E runner in the race.
8. The horse must be in the competitive speed figure range (Has one of the top three speed figures in the field or has one of the top three speed figures in one of its last three races)
9. Must have posted today’s level par speed figure in one of its published races

Now for the Must Nots:
1. Did not win its last race
2. Did not win its previous race unless it was a Big Win (3 lengths or more. We’re looking for improving horses, not the peaked kind)
3. If the horse is coming off a first start after a layoff then the speed figure must not be a top (once again we’re looking for improving horses)
4. Cheaper tracks (Beulah is not a good idea at Churchill)
5. Last race claims. (My experience says it’s a bad idea)

Now for the research results.
Remember, this is only the beginning so don’t get too excited about it. Follow it, add to it. If you find that it helps balance the ledger then, and this is the most important part, believe in it.

I’ve been following the Dominator for a while. I started backing it with real money in January. Research is one thing but putting money on it is another thing. Here’s the $2 flat bet result. My real bet amounts shall remain a mystery.

January – (27.90% – $162.40 – 88% ROI)

$9.00
$13.40
$14.60
x
$11.40
$14.60
x
x
$18.00
x
x
$12.40
x
$7.60
x
x
x
x
$13.40
x
x
x
x
$19.40
x
x
$22.60
x
x
x
x
x
Win/DQ
x
x
x
x
x
x
$6.00
x
x

So far the Dominator has delivered 27.90% winners and an 88% ROI. That’s just 43 plays, though. I’m always prepared for things to turn south. As you can see I had to withstand 13 loses in a row but I hung in there. Scotch helped. I let some winners go and a fair share of losers, too. But nonetheless this is where I stand today on a flat bet ledger, real time.

Now, here’s the entire story from October 20th until today. This result includes my actual plays.

155 races
48 winners
30.9% winners
Invested ($2 flat bet) – $310
Gross return – $440.30
Profit (+/-) – +$130.30
ROI (+/-) – +42%

I don’t consider any of this a “system”. It’s not really. It’s all about improving early pace horses that have the final time ability to win along with superior pace ability. It’s kind of like a fast and fit horse with a head start.

March 15, 2010 • Posted in: Articles

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