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The Power of Pace Velocity Ratings

Posted By Randy Giles On April 27, 2010 @ 12:48 pm In Articles | Comments Disabled


[1]Want to know how that speed figure was earned? What about flagging horses on the improve? Would you like to know a horse’s pace ability – how it handles a certain pace velocity? What about discovering the quality of the race a horse faced in the past? Want to uncover key pace races? Would like to build a new kind of pace shape? Well, you can do all of this with Pace Velocity Ratings. Here are the six important reasons that pace velocity ratings are so powerful.

1. Speed figures are influenced by pace velocity. The pace of the race velocity rating adjusts the “raw” speed figures. The data file version has two speed figures. The second one is the adjusted one. So what? Well, imagine a favorite with the best unadjusted speed figure in the field, a 100. Let’s say the pace was slow 5 in its last race. Depending on the speed figure vendor the adjusted speed figure could be a 92! Depending on the speed figures of the other horses in the field and the pace match-up, we have just exposed a false favorite. The betting public usually makes the top speed figure horse the favorite. Not always but most of the time. Without pace of the race velocity ratings you could not have adjusted the speed figure to expose the false favorite.

2. Just like stock market traders who are looking for stocks on the way up, handicappers are looking for horses on the upward side of their form cycle. Declining stocks and horses do not help the bottom line. So how does a pace velocity rating help in this regard? PaceAppraiser research shows that horses moving into the turn against a fast pace improve in subsequent races – especially in the maiden ranks. A fast pace plus a move into the turn is a flag for improving form. With pace of the race velocity ratings you will flag those horses for improvement.

3. Horses that stay close to the pace against a fast pace velocity rating and continue on to record par speed figures are the best horses in their class. These horses are more likely to succeed as they move up the class ladder. A par speed figure earned against a fast pace represents above average ability. So? How do you know? The velocity rating tells the tale. Simply check the velocity rating and position at the pace call. But remember, off pace horses (P/C, C) are disadvantaged if the pace of the race was slow. A Slow 5 does not help ordinary off pace horses come on late.

4. Check the pace of the race velocity rating and the speed figure of the winner. Superior races are fast at the pace call and par or better for the winner’s speed figure. How does this help the bottom line? It helps to know the quality of a race when Maiden Special Weights move into Non-Winners Allowance races. Slow pace Maiden winners routinely fail at the next higher class level if their win was against a slow pace. Plus, it’s simply fun to sit down with a stack of past performances and rate the quality of Stake Races, Graded and all.

5. Key pace races are Fast 5 and higher. These races routinely produce winners. So how do you use it? Simple. You must take a second look at any horse coming out of a Fast 5 and higher race. These are the best races, the highest quality, so make sure you don’t miss potential overlays. The Fast 5 flags these races.

6. The inverse relationship between pace and final time is revealed with pace shapes. Again, so what? Off pace horses that have “bad” last race pacelines could have been the recipient of a Slow/Fast pace shape. Not good. Fast/Slow would be ideal. Pace shapes give us that information. Here’s how to do it with pace of the race ratings: Note the pace rating, par or whatever, and the speed figure of the winner relative to par for that class. A Fast/Fast pace are the best. As I mentioned above off pace horses are disadvantaged when confronted with a pace shape of Slow/Fast. Using the pace of the race ratings and par speed figure charts creates a powerful tool to determine if a certain horse was at a pace disadvantage or not.

So there it is. A simple number that ends up as a powerful handicapping tool, an overlay producer.


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