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My Early Pace Box Worksheet

Posted By Randy Giles On June 4, 2010 @ 4:07 pm In Articles | Comments Disabled

The following worksheet is the same one I use daily to spot prime early pace box horses. Make sure your early pace box horse fits the conditions of eligibility; that’s very important to this approach. Read these articles for definitions and procedures:

Article 1 [1]
Article 2 [2]
Article 3 [3]

EC+/F+ @ FFR 3+ @ E/P 5-7 @ Early Pace Boxes

The equation:
EC – Eligibility conditions qualifier.
F+ – Has one of the following additional factors
FFR 3+ – Has a Form Factor Rating of 3 or better
E/P 5-7 – Has a two dimensional early pace running style along with 5 to 7 speed points
Early Pace Boxes – The 2D Early Pace Box or the Lone 2D Early Pace Box

F+ Factors
1. L1 or L2 (First or second start off layoff)
2. CP (Lowest class level out of last three races – see elimination factors below)
3. PF! (Last three PA pace figures 100 or better)
4. F6+ (Last race was a Fast 6 or faster)
5. PR+ (Surprise pace race)
6. !$ (Surprise in the money finish)

Speed Figure Requirements
(Must have at least one of the following. In the PA PPs they are in bold type)
1. 1R (Competitive speed figure range qualifier last race)
2. 2R (Competitive speed figure range qualifier second race back)

Elimination Factors
1. No races with E/P8s (We don’t want early pace horses blowing the match-up advantage)
2. No 7-12 post positions in routes (We need a pace comfort zone the easy way)
3. No E/P 0-4 (We only want horses that have good or better early speed)
4. No 3rd place finishes without !$ or CP support (My research shows a third place finisher needs a helper)
5. No 7 furlong races or races beyond 1 mile and an 1/8th (Too long on right lead at 7 and breeding required beyond 9 furlongs)
6. No claiming 2 life time without CP support (Research says 2 lifetime needs a helper)
7. No last race winners (We’re looking for improving horses, not peaked horses)
8. No horses with 2 layoff lines out of the last three races (Somethings wrong, pass)
9. No long layoffs (Three months is my limit)
10. No drops below claiming tag (Makes no economic sense, pass)
11. No unsupported turf to dirt speed figures (If it’s dirt, I want dirt figures)
12. No economically unsound class drops (If the trainer quit then…)
13. No confirmed losers (2 for 32, etc.) (If the horse has no desire then I have no desire)
14. No repeated class drops without improvement (“Maybe this will work” is not a prime situation)
15. No cheaper tracks than host track (PRM to BEL, no thank you)
16. No distance problems (Sprinter stretching out without EC – eligibility conditions – support is a bad idea)
17. No turf races (This is my dirt approach)

“Paper trade it” and see why I search all over the country for these “class and pace” advantaged horses. If you’re a simulcast player like me, look for about 250 per year. That’s 4.8 prime, and I mean prime, plays per week.

Note: We’re just about ready to release the new update to the PaceAppraiser Early Pace Box utility.

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URL to article: http://www.paceappraiser.com/news/2010/06/04/my-early-pace-box-worksheet/

URLs in this post:

[1] Article 1: http://www.paceappraiser.com/news/2010/04/20/the-handicappers-condition-book-and-pace/

[2] Article 2: http://www.paceappraiser.com/news/2010/04/09/how-to-improve-your-roi-with-early-pace-boxes/

[3] Article 3: http://www.paceappraiser.com/news/2010/03/29/pace-advantages-with-pace-boxes/

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