Impact Values, $NET and Graded Stakes Races

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I’ve had James Quinn’s book The Handicapper’s Stakes Festival sitting on my desk for a few months just as reminder that’s it time to give it go. Anyway, I decided to follow along this month with graded races, see what happens.

The plan: I wanted to know the impact value and net dollar amount for competitive speed figure range (CSRF) qualifiers (last two races) with a form factor rating of 3 or better (FFR3+). You can read about those PaceAppraiser factors on the main site and/or here on Extra.

Here are the results.

There have been 28 graded races this month so far

243 horses were entered in those graded races

72 of those horses qualified for CSFR and FFR3+

29.6% of the horses entered had the CSFR/FFR3+ combo

CSRF/FFR3+ combo produced 16 winners out of the 28 races for a win percentage of 57.1

Our Impact Value (divide the percentage of winners with a given characteristic by the percentage of starters with that characteristic) comes to 1.93 (1.00 means that horses won no more or less than their fair share of the races). So the CSFR/FFR3+ won almost twice their fair share of the races. That’s very good but if the winners were all favorites then that’s a big so what. After all, this game is all about making money not fancy impact values. So let’s look the $NET figure.

$2 bet on each of the 72 horses with the CSFR/FFR3+ characteristic = $144 invested

The gross return = $194.30

The profit = $50.30

$NET = 2.698


34.9% return on investment on each dollar wagered. That’s good.

This is a very small sample but the results are very encouraging. Actually, I’m not surprised.

But can we do better if we only consider those CSRF/FFR3+ horses that will be racing in a 2D Early Pace Box or a Late Pace Box?

Those results:

We had 14 pace box races with 125 horse entered

14 of those horse qualified which means 11.4% of the horses entered had the CSRF/FFR3+/Pace Box characteristic (Only 1 per race in this sample)

This combination produced 42.8% winners (6 winners out of the 14 races)

Our Impact Value = 3.75! Remember, 1.00 means no more or less than their fair share of wins. (Winners – $3.20, $24.20, $21.20, $5.40, $12.40, $23.20)

$NET = 220% ROI for each dollar wagered! ($28 invested, $89.60 gross return, $61.60 profit)

Again, very small sample but incredible results. Actually this mirrors my experience – horses with a pace advantage win much more than their fair share of the races. And in this case much, much more.

In 2011 I’ll be following the graded stakes schedule with enthusiasm.

I want to reiterate: THESE ARE VERY SMALL SAMPLES but encouraging.

November 28, 2010 • Posted in: Articles

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