Author Archive
The Tao of the Circle Approach
an odds line and the middle wayIf you want to get a room full of handicappers up in arms then bring up the subject of odds lines. One extreme will tell you flat out that you will never make a profit if you don’t have an odds line. The other extreme will tell you it’s [...]
Easy Pace Spots for 2/24
Today’s Early Pace Advantaged Horses
AQU
Race 3 – 6 Joey P. – (Win $7.70)
HAW
Race 8 – 6 Monkey Dust – (Out)
BEU
Race 2 – 1 Houston Heist – (4th)
SA
Race 4 – 2 Underground – (Win $3.20)
Race 7 – 3 Via Veneto – Scratched
The Math of Early Speed
Lately I’ve been looking at the math of early pace running styles, especially the one-dimensional types. I found something very interesting, I think. Since we play this game with an eye on the odds (or should), it’s important to know the probabilities of a 1 dimensional early pace horse making its running style in the [...]
A Horseplayer’s Missing Link?
I’ve made some pretty stupid plays in my day. They drive/drove me crazy. At least crazy enough to investigate the problem and visit a shrink if necessary. I actually did make that visit. I spend three years with a shrink trying to discover the reasons an otherwise sane person – and intelligent one, if you [...]
The ABC of Horse Racing 1948 Style
In 1948 a little Bantam paperback book called The ABC of Horse Racing by Dan Parker, a columnist for the New York Daily Mirror, hit the stands. The first page displayed a reprint of The Morning Telegraph, presumably the devil’s code. Flip to the next page and you’re awash in sour graphs: “Having studied simple [...]
A Simple Pace Shape
Formula: pv + wsf(pc) Pace velocity (pace of the race) + winner’s speed figure compared to par for class equals a simple pace shape that includes the pace of the race (not a particular horse) and the way the “winner” finished against the pace of the race represented by the “winner’s” speed figure relative to [...]
The Speed Spot System
In the Dec. 1948 issue of American Turf Monthly Ray Taulbot unveiled his Speed Spot System. It’s the granddaddy of pace handicapping. He focused on what happened early – at the pre-stretch call or pace call as we know it now – in the race instead of late. He had been writing about pace for [...]
