Current owners of the Handicapper’s Lab will receive an email soon with download instructions.

Thank you,

Randy

I’ve been following last race winners (The Handicapper’s Lab option is WLR) since Jan. 10th, 2011. I added CSRF/R1 (competitive speed figure range qualifier in last race), and a PaceAppraiser FFR3+ (form factor rating of 3 or better) along with dirt races only to the mix. These factors are included in the Handicapper’s Lab program. No other handicapping was done. Here are the results (we’ll do this on a flat 2$ bet).

Jan. 10th through March 13th:
1274 plays = $2548 invested
$2936.70 gross return
$388.70 profit
+15.2 % return on investment.

I think that’s impressive considering there’s no handicapping involved. A 15.2% ROI with that kind of volume gets my attention (the important word here is volume). That comes in at over 7,000 plays per year. Do the math for your bankroll. But it’s early still so let’s carry on to see where this goes. By the way, my E-Trade account is not producing this kind return.

The idea is simple: The horse is fast enough to compete in today’s race (CSFR) and could get loose on the lead (LE). So stay tuned. Maybe there is a black box after all.

Gulfstream, Santa Anita and Oaklawn here we come!

See how fast you can locate pace advantage horses with The Handicapper’s Lab

Please note: The core section of the program is the Pace Styles section. Start here to build your pace match-up advantages.

Abbreviation Quick Guide

(Image smaller than actual program)

Surf/Dist – Surface and Distance (Boxes left unchecked includes ALL surfaces and distances)
Dirt/AW – Dirt and all weather
Turf: Turf surface only
SPRT: Sprint races only
RTE: Route Races only

Trner/Jcky – Trainer and Jockey
20%T:Trainer with 20% win rate at meet and/or year
20%J: Jockey with 20% win rate at meet and/or year
20%JT:Trainer and Jockey combo win rate meet or last 365 days

Odds – Morning line odds
ML 2/1-: Minimum 2 to 1 or less
ML 5/2+: Minimum 5 to 2 or better
ML 5/1+: Minimum 5 to 1 or better

Comp Range – Competitive Speed Figure Range (CSFR)
CSFR: Finds horses that fit the competitive speed figure range for race
CSFR/1R: Finds horses that have CSFR from most recent race
LST: Horses that do not fit the CSFR but have a “listed” CSFR in one of its races 4 or more back. Use this function with LE (Lone Front Runner). In extreme pace handicapping we call this one the LE/Listed

Pace Styles – Running Styles and 2dEarly Pace Box
LE: Lone Front Runner
2dEPB: Two dimensional early pace horse with 4 or more speed points (E/P 4-8) racing in 2dEarly Pace Box today
2dE: Two dimensional early pace horse with 5 or more speed points (E/P 5-8)
Lone P: The only Presser in a race (The garden spot horse)
P/C: A Presser/Closer running style horse

Pace Factors
PCZ: Horse fits today’s Pace Comfort Zone requirement relative to running style and pace setter(s)
PCZ 5.0<=: Horse has a Pace Comfort Zone of 5 lengths or less (Best PCZ)
PCZ 5.0>: Horse has Pace Comfort Zone of more than 5 lengths (Best for 2nd spot in Exactas or 2nd and 3rd spot in Trifectas
F6+: Key pace race horses. Fast 6 or faster at pace call
PF!: Horses that have 100 or better pace figures in their three most recent races
PR+: Surprise pace race. Leading or less than ¾ of a length off the pace at the second call in most recent race but did not have pattern in previous to most recent race
LBPPG: Late pace bias Pace Pressure Gauge rating

Form Factors
FFR3+: Form Factor Rating of 3 or better (Best ratings)
FFR 0-2: Form Factor Rating of 0 to 2 (Best used for longshots and discovering underlays)
!$: Surprise in the money finish. Ran 2nd or 3rd in most recent race but did not in previous race
$: Finished in the money in most recent race
WLR: Won most recent race
BWLR: Big win most recent race (Won by 3 lengths or more while off the pace by ½ length or more at first and/or second call)
SLR: Finished 2nd in most recent race
CF/L2R: Finished closer to the winner in most recent than in previous race

Form Patterns
L1/L2: First time off layoff or 2nd time off layoff
OXP: Layoff then finished in the money and then finished out of the money in most recent race (Bounce pattern)
2S+R: Early pace horse with 5 or more speed points coming in today’s route race off a layoff and then followed by two sprint races
TS+: Turf races only. A horse that will be on the turf for the first or second time in its lifetime and is the offspring of a top turf sire in those situations

Here are some handicapping and research questions I posted a few days ago just in case you missed them:

Want to know if there’s a lone front-runner in today’s card or cards? Done
How about a Lone Presser? Done
What about a Presser/Closer in a late pace bias race? Done
Want to know if there’s a key pace horse racing in a light early pace pressure race? Done
How about a 20% jockey/trainer combo coming out of a surprise money finish? Done
Want to know just a list of horses that have Pace Comfort Zone Rating of less than 5.0? Done
What about a list of horses that are over the PCZ of 5.0 for your exactas in the second spot? Done.
How about early pace horses coming out of two sprints and routing today? Done
Want to know only the horses that had a Big Win last race? Done
What about an OX bounce pattern off a layoff? Done
Want a list of horses that are coming out of key pace races and are 5/1 or higher morning line? Done

Well, you get the idea. This list goes on and on and on.

Let’s do another one:

If you can win 25% of your races at average odds of 3/1, your ROI will be 0%! That’s good to know.

Let’s try again:

If you win 25% of your races at average odds of 7/2, your ROI will be 12.5%. So at a batting average of 25% look for 4/1 for a ROI of 25%.

And on and on…

I believe you should track at least 200 races (more is better) before you can be reasonably sure of your batting average.

But let’s remember that we all better know we can pull in some big prices to average things out if we’re hell bent on dabbling below our +20% ROI optimum odds. Otherwise we’re sure to strike out. Yeah, “average odds” is good phrase but it can also be the gateway to handicapping hell, an empty bank account. There’s certainly nothing wrong with betting the 5/2 standout but we should know about the additional risk we’ve taken on if we’re to achieve our +20% ROI considering our present batting average.

So what’s your batting average? Do you know? If you don’t know, find out and play accordingly. That’ll keep you in the game so you can come back tomorrow. Our batting averages are dynamic, of course, so we should do the math frequently so we know the odds we’ll need to achieve our return on investment goal.

Well, from this point it’s easy to calculate how much you’ll need to wager in order to achieve your daily financial goal. Maybe you’d like to look at your horse racing endeavor as if it’s a second job and an extra $100 per weekend on average would be nice. Let’s say you use your second job income to take your family on vacation every year, or whatever. Ok, that’s $50 per day. So if you have an ROI of 20% how much will you need to wager in order to accomplish your $50 per day goal (on average, of course). Here’s reality: You’ll need to wager (shovel through the mutuel windows or online account) $250 per day to achieve your $50 goal. So pick your daily goal and do the math.

Now we know exactly what we have to do to get to our favorite vacation spot, or, and to end with the baseball metaphor, to the major leagues.