The betting public loves these types of horses. Read the eligibility conditions and then check those last three races. This is the so-called class horse, right? Now look at the last pace of the race velocity rating (it’s in blue type). A Slow 10! That’s 10 lengths slower than average for that particular final time at Churchill Downs at six and a half furlongs. Now look at the running style (E/P-6) and the horse’s position at the second call. Leading by a head against that slow slow pace. There’s the red flag; a very weak pace velocity rating! When an early pace horse can’t keep things rolling against that kind of pace, throw them out without mercy. No win bet. No horizontal bet. No vertical bet. Save your money. Save your sanity. Look for red red flags.

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Find Lone Early Pace here.

Find Late Pace here.

More clips to come…

1. 20% trainer this year & meet
2. 20% jockey this year & meet
3. 20% trainer/jockey combo
4. Big win
5. Lone presser
6. Extreme late pace advantage
7. Pace Comfort Zone rating of 5.0 & less
8. Turf breeding database for first and second starts on turf
9. Top speed figure
10. Top adjusted speed figure
11. Distances (routes & sprints)
12. Maiden Claiming races
13. Maiden Special Weight races
14. Lone early
15. Bullet workouts
16. OX pattern
17. 1R, 2R & 3R (Competitive Speed Figure rankings)
18. 2nd place finish
19. Class drop
20. CP (Lowest class last three races)
21. Morning line ranges
22. Closer at finish improvement pattern
23. Turf races
24. Jockey change

These factors will be added to the 10 filters/factors we have now. Scroll down to read all about the current options. We’ll post detailed instructions soon. Stay tuned.

Call PaceAppraiser at 615-403-1341. Get your buy-in price today…no more subscription payments, ever.

!$: Surprise in the money finish last race out of last three races and fits the eligibility conditions of the race.

F+ Factor

1. !$ (PR+ extra added attraction) (PR+ = Surprise Pace Race – See articles on this site)

Speed Figure Requirements

1. 1R (Competitive Speed Figure Range Qualifier Last Race)
2. 2R (Competitive Speed Figure Range Qualifier Second Race)

Elimination Factors

1. No plays below ML 5/2
2. No extreme seconditis horses
3. No races with E/P8s unless qualifier is P/C type
4. No 7-12 post positions in routes for early pace types
5. No E/P 0-4
6. No PCZ over 5.0
7. No PCZ under 1.0 with more than 3 E/P 5-8s
8. No 7 furlong races or races beyond 1 mile and an 1/8th
9. No claiming 2 life time
10. No maiden races
11. No horses with 2 layoff lines in last three races
12. No long layoffs (over 3 months without trainer stats support)
13. No drops below claiming tag
14. No unsupported turf to dirt speed figures
15. No economically unsound class drops
16. No confirmed losers (2 for 32, etc.)
17. No repeated class drops without improvement
18. No cheaper tracks than host track
19. No distance problems (sprinter stretching out without EC support)

Technically, PaceAppraiser can be best described as “cloud” computing. There’s nothing to install*, simply access our software on the Internet at www.paceappraiser.com and you’re ready to go from any computer anywhere…think Google Docs or Microsoft Skydrive.

So we’re been thinking…

We want our subscribers to own the software but without all the problems that go with new version updates, download schedules, customer version tracking, new computer installs and the rest. When your log in to your PA software, you’ll know you’re using the most current version available. When we make changes to our database the PPs reflect those changes instantly, on the fly. So we’ve decided to implement a new ownership/usage plan.

Here’s how it works…

New subscribers/buyers: Subscribe/buy for $19.95 per month for 18 months and the service is FREE after that. You bought it. We take care of the rest just like, well, Google.

Current subscribers: All current subscribers will have their paid months credited to the 18 month buy-in limit. For example, if you’ve been a subscriber for 12 months then you only have 6 months to go and then the service is free…no more monthly subscription fees, ever. (Please note: If you’ve been with us for over 18 months, your service is now free. We’ll notify about the particulars.)

If you were a subscriber in the past: No problem. Past subscription payments will be credited to the 18 month buy-in limit. Simply subscribe again. We’ll let you know your buy-in date, which will reflect the months you’ve already paid.

Please note: New subscribers, current subscribers or past subscribers may decide to make a one time buy-in payment to finish the 18 month limit. Let us know and we’ll set that up for you.

Don’t forget: Subscribers/Owners will also receive all new and updated PA filtering utilities for free.

I use the PA PPs every day, so PaceAppraiser will be around, and improved, for a long time to come. Jason, my son the programmer, and I are dedicated to the PaceAppraiser Project. We hope you like our new plan.

If you have any questions, I’ll be more than happy to answer them.

Thank you,

Randy Giles
randy@paceappraiser.com

*Java version 6 must be installed. Most computers are set to go out of the box. Macs must have Intel processors.

INTERVIEWER
Yes, occasionally.

HEMINGWAY
Then you read the Racing Form…There you have the true art of fiction.

—Conversation in a Madrid café, May 1954

The next version will include the Lone Front Runner, the Lone Presser and the Late Pace Advantaged horses, which I call Carpetbaggers. So stay tuned for that release.

PaceAppraiser.exe version:

Here’s some good news. I’ve added a 2dE option that will find all 2d early pace horses (5 or more speed points) even if they’re not in an early pace box. My research tells me that a Form Factor Rating of 3 or better is the way to go. Add one of these three pace factors to qualify the 2d early pace horse for best results – Fast 6 or better (F6+), surprise pace race (PR+), and the power pace figure pattern (PF!). Since these two dimensional early horses are not in a comfort pace box they need a “pace” factor helper, thus the F6+ and/or the PR+ and/or the PF! factor.

Take a look at the little utility and then I’ll go through each option.

CSFR: Fits competitive speed figure range.

FFR3+: Form Factor Rating of 3 or better.

2dEPB: Two dimensional early pace horse that will be racing in a comfort early pace match-up.

PCZ: Pace Comfort Zone qualifier.

F6+: Coming out of a race that was Fast 6 or faster at the second/pace call.

L1/L2: First or second start off a layoff.

PF!: A 2d early pace horse that has pace figures of 100 or better in last three races.

PR+: Surprise pace race last race.

!$: Surprise in the money finish last race.

2dE: All two dimensional horses that have 5 or more speed points.

Subscribers can download the update on their PA PPs page (Java applet page)

Please note:

The 1R and 2R options are not functioning due to more testing. The labels simply mean that the CSFR qualified in last race or second race back.

Download utility and replace the old paPP.exe with the new one. Keep the database files in the same folder.

Related information here.

Article 1
Article 2
Article 3

EC+/F+ @ FFR 3+ @ E/P 5-7 @ Early Pace Boxes

The equation:
EC – Eligibility conditions qualifier.
F+ – Has one of the following additional factors
FFR 3+ – Has a Form Factor Rating of 3 or better
E/P 5-7 – Has a two dimensional early pace running style along with 5 to 7 speed points
Early Pace Boxes – The 2D Early Pace Box or the Lone 2D Early Pace Box

F+ Factors
1. L1 or L2 (First or second start off layoff)
2. CP (Lowest class level out of last three races – see elimination factors below)
3. PF! (Last three PA pace figures 100 or better)
4. F6+ (Last race was a Fast 6 or faster)
5. PR+ (Surprise pace race)
6. !$ (Surprise in the money finish)

Speed Figure Requirements
(Must have at least one of the following. In the PA PPs they are in bold type)
1. 1R (Competitive speed figure range qualifier last race)
2. 2R (Competitive speed figure range qualifier second race back)

Elimination Factors
1. No races with E/P8s (We don’t want early pace horses blowing the match-up advantage)
2. No 7-12 post positions in routes (We need a pace comfort zone the easy way)
3. No E/P 0-4 (We only want horses that have good or better early speed)
4. No 3rd place finishes without !$ or CP support (My research shows a third place finisher needs a helper)
5. No 7 furlong races or races beyond 1 mile and an 1/8th (Too long on right lead at 7 and breeding required beyond 9 furlongs)
6. No claiming 2 life time without CP support (Research says 2 lifetime needs a helper)
7. No last race winners (We’re looking for improving horses, not peaked horses)
8. No horses with 2 layoff lines out of the last three races (Somethings wrong, pass)
9. No long layoffs (Three months is my limit)
10. No drops below claiming tag (Makes no economic sense, pass)
11. No unsupported turf to dirt speed figures (If it’s dirt, I want dirt figures)
12. No economically unsound class drops (If the trainer quit then…)
13. No confirmed losers (2 for 32, etc.) (If the horse has no desire then I have no desire)
14. No repeated class drops without improvement (“Maybe this will work” is not a prime situation)
15. No cheaper tracks than host track (PRM to BEL, no thank you)
16. No distance problems (Sprinter stretching out without EC – eligibility conditions – support is a bad idea)
17. No turf races (This is my dirt approach)

“Paper trade it” and see why I search all over the country for these “class and pace” advantaged horses. If you’re a simulcast player like me, look for about 250 per year. That’s 4.8 prime, and I mean prime, plays per week.

Note: We’re just about ready to release the new update to the PaceAppraiser Early Pace Box utility.