Pace Velocity and the Final Fraction

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Today I want to talk a bit about the adjusted speed figure that’s included in the PA PPs. I received a letter, not an email, about it, and so it occurred to me the adjusted figure is not well understood. That’s my fault. The jest of the letter was this: All well respected writers of handicapping books know that final time is slow if the pace is fast; conversely, the final time is fast is the pace is slow. So the multipliers that I included in Extreme Pace Handicapping were misleading. Well, my response is this: Not always. Here’s why. On many occasions I’ve seen a 1:10.4, say, six furlong final time (on the same day) have two different pace times. One could be a 44.8 and the other a 45.4. That’s 3/5ths of a second difference. Different pace times but the same final time. Now if the average pace time for a 1:10.4 at this track and distance is 45 flat then the first one was 1/5th of a second faster than par and the second one was 2/5ths of a second slower than what’s average for that particular final time. The final time in the example above was arrived at in two different ways. When we look at the problem in terms of pace shapes we’ll understand why this happens and why it’s not problem. A pace shape is like a seesaw, one goes up the other goes down, but not necessarily with final time, only the final fraction! So there’s an inverse relationship between pace and the final fraction – but can be true of pace and final time outside of a certain pace velocity range. When we look at pace and final fraction there are only three possible pace shapes, average/average, slow/fast, and fast/slow (we’re talking about pace of race not pace of the horse). As I said, not necessarily with final time. And there’s the letter writer’s oversight. Pace does not effect final time unless it’s extremely fast or slow.

So the adjusted speed figures tell us that if the pace of the race was evenly paced, average, then this is the figure a horse could run. Could is a very important word. It means nothing unless we relate that figure to the pace picture match-up. The Lone Early, Lone 2D Early, 2D Early, and Lone Presser (see Pace Boxes) are the pace boxes that tell us that this could figure is in play. These pace boxes have been designed with that simple concept in mind. And that’s the reason that the range I mentioned above is so important. For example, a Fast 3 or Slow 3 don’t really mean anything much. It’s when those pace of the race velocity ratings (PVR on your PA PPs) exceed that range that they become important. They have been adjusted to reflect the writer’s concern about slow pace/fast final time, fast pace/slow final time. So the writer was right some what, but we must remember that that’s only true outside of a certain range of pace velocities that are in the extreme – extremely fast, extremely slow.

And finally, get your brain twister hat on, that’s the case for me anyway: The adjusted speed figure is not designed to adjust Beyer or BRIS brands to reflect the extreme effects of pace (I’m sure you’ve noticed that the speed figure increases when the pace is fast and decreases with the pace is slow) but rather the speed figure a horse could run if the pace of the race comes up average or, you could say, the race is run evenly. And that’s the reason I put so much emphasis on the pace picture that’s embedded in the PA PPs. Those pace boxes give us the best chance of that could figure. When you see a breakout adjusted speed figure (over the competitive speed figure range), well, now you know.

By the way, I really like challenges when the rules of critical thinking are abided by because I get to rethink all of this stuff and make changes if necessary. The letter writer was very courteous and presented his argument succinctly and professionally. I appreciate that. I’m always open to criticism as long as those rules are in place. That’s what makes learning so much fun for me. And there’s still plenty to learn, and that’s why I’m still in the game.

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March 3, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

Longshot for March 2

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Philadelphia – Race 2 – #5 Swing Lane – ML 12/1 (Late pace advantage – No go if there are any scratches) Had a scratch for a no go. Late pace advantage disappeared!

March 2, 2010 • Posted in: Updates • No Comments

Maiden Claiming Play of the Day

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Race Cancelled
Fair Grounds – Monday, March 1
Race 10
#1 Stretch O’brien – ML 9/2

March 1, 2010 • Posted in: Updates • No Comments

Dutching for Fun and Profit

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We’ve all heard the word Dutching. In the old American Turf Monthly book called Treasury of American Turf there’s an interesting article about the topic. Here’s how it goes:

Set a daily goal, say, of $50. Make sure your top three contenders win at a clip of 75 to 8o% – that’s the most important part. Follow this Bookie Percentage Wagering Table and bet all three of your contenders.

Post Time Odds/Amount to Wager

8-5———————————$19.00
9-5———————————$18.00
2-1———————————$16.00
5-2———————————$14.00
3-1———————————$12.00
7-2——————————- $11.00
4-1———————————$10.00
9-2———————————-$9.00
5-1———————————-$8.00
6-1———————————-$7.00
7-1———————————-$6.00
8-1——————————— $6.00
9-1——————————— $5.00
10-1—————————— $5.00
Over 10-1———————-$4.00

Now, the total amount bet should never exceed $42 (That’s based on $2 bets. It could be $420 if you’re betting more, obviously). The author suggests a max of $35 (or more as I just said) for best results. As always you must pick your best betting spots. That’s means it works best when your contenders are not all in the top three betting choices – that figures. Follow the program and you’ll make a profit every single day. Well, that’s what the articles said.

Disclaimer: I have never used this approach but it might be a good research project. A $2 test project won’t kill anybody.

March 1, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

Close Look Horses for 2/26

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This is a list of two dimensional early pace horses that are in light pace pressure races today. These horses should be given a close or second look since they will be racing in a complimentary pace match-up for their running style. The codes: Track – Race # – Horse # – Horse Name

BEU
1 – 1 Burning Daylight
1 – 2 Indyama Jones
5 – 4 Market Genius

DED
11 – 1 Mr. Highroller

FG
2 – 3 Canadianproduction
9 – 5 Frigid Kiss
9 – 13 Stretch O’brien

GG
3 – 5 Stormy Anna
4 – 3 Sly Park Road
4 – 6 Imadethecashcall
6 – 2 Glacier Peak
6 – 4 Sarah Got Even

GP
1 – 6 She Don’t Pay

HAW
4 – 3 Kakle
4 – 5 Hold’em Tiger
4 – 6 Advanced Signs
5 – 1 Sultry Venture
5 – 7 Hole In One
7 – 1 Officer Frank
8 – 4 King Alliance
8 – 9 Parade Route

HOU
2 – 5 Cat Bryde
10 – 4 Aly’s Triple Luck
10 – 9 Enchanting
10 – 10 Distant Storm

LRL Racing Canceled
2 – 1 Edgewater
2 – 5 Lord Kipling

OP
1 – 2 Tappin ‘n Preachin
3 – 6 Seven’s Rose
3 – 12 Sissy Partee
5 – 5 Alexandria J
5 – 7 Labeled
7 – 3 Jolly Ol’ Nick

PEN Racing Canceled
1 – 1 Nasdaq Queen
1 – 6 Takenbythebreeze
7 – 2 Fortunate Storm
7 – 7 Angelic Aura
7 – 9 Surrealdeal

TAM
1 – 1 Preacher Buck
2 – 3 Pyrite Apex
2 – 7 Bea Precise

TP
11 – 11 Izzy Ali
12 – 10 Carson’s Pride

TUP
2 – 5 Oak Flat
5 – 1A Joe Black Sandy
8 – 8 Sectaurs

February 26, 2010 • Posted in: Updates • No Comments

The Down ‘n Dirty Sprinter

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Let’s make some money. Let’s do it in sprints. Let’s start with two-dimensional early pace running styles (E/P) with at least 20% of the speed points in the field. We’ll need an improving early pace horse too. Let’s make sure our good thing is fast enough and has above average pace ability. And finally, let’s make sure we never bet our good thing below 5-2. I’m going to make a promise. If you follow this approach exactly you will turn a profit. You could call this one the Down ‘n Dirty Sprinter.

1. Add all the speed points in the race. Divide each horse’s speed points by the total to arrive at a percentage of total. Example: 8/16 = 50%. Horse has 8 speed points in a field with only 16. Must have at least 20% of the total speed points. The goal is to be 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the first call.
2. Must be early/presser -E/P. This one is very important. Label them correctly.
3. Must have one of the top three speed figures in the race in one of its last three races. We just want to make sure our good thing has competitive final time ability.
4. Must show improving form. No winners. No previous winners. No string of in the money finishes. We want an improving not a declining horse. Look for surprise improvements from previous race (surprise in the money finish or surprise pace race). Pay close attention to this one. Think improving form all the time. Your level of success will depend on this one!
5. Must be exiting a fast pace race and up close at the second call. We want superior pace ability.
6. Proceed to betting window/computer terminal if odds are 5-2 or better.
7. Be patient

Test it for yourself. I want to emphasize improving form. It will make or break you. Good luck.

February 26, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

Easy Pace Spots for 2/25

Today’s Early Pace Advantaged Horses

AQU
Race 3 – 3 Jimmy Vegas (2nd)
Race 9 – 5 Leader Of The Lite (Scratched)
LRL
Race 4 – 2 Eyes On Versailles (Win $4.20)
GG
Race 3 – 5 She’s Funomenal (2nd)
OP
Race 9 – 6 Treasure Hunter (Out)
February 25, 2010 • Posted in: Updates • No Comments