The PaceAppraiser Utility Update
Print Version
Jason and I are just about ready to release the new standalone program/utility, which will include the improving form factors for layoffs, superior pace figures, surprise pace races, and surprise money finishes. The program will also include some “beware” and “no go” factors. We’re also adding a nicer interface to the program. We want it to look nice and work nice.
With the add-on program you can sort through many different combinations of factors. Today I used the program to look for the CSFR, FFR 3+, PCZ combination. So far 3 winners, one loser. I looked at each horse in the sorted list and simply qualified it for eligibility conditions with the PaceAppraiser PPs, which includes stable form or improving form.
CSFR – Competitive Speed Figure Range qualifier
FFR 3+ – PaceAppraiser Form Factor Rating of 3 or better
PCZ – Horse fits today’s Pace Comfort Zone requirement
EC+ – Eligibility Conditions and Form qualifier
So stay tuned. Give us a few more days… The program is free for subscribers. You can get the scoop on the present version here. Subscribers can download the program (Download Link) from their welcome screen after log in.
Regards,
Randy Giles
www.paceappraiser.com
P.S. The next version after this release will include the extreme pace boxes (early and late pace) along with the lone presser pace box, which will be added to the pace boxes that we have now, the 2d Early Pace Box and the Lone 2d Early Pace Box. We’re working on it but will take a little more time. Stay tuned for that one as well.
New Update in the Works
Print Version
We have an update in the works for our standalone utility. Jason and I will be working on it this weekend. The important surprise pace race factor will be included along with a couple more. As you’ve probably read here at PaceAppraiser Extra we have plans to complete the utility with the extreme pace, lone presser and late pace advantaged horses. We’re also working on a new interface for the utility. So stay tuned for the release announcement. Subscribers will be notified.
Early Pace Box Winners since March 14
Print Version
I’ve had numerous requests for a list of early pace box qualifiers. I’ve listed them below*. Read this and this and this and this first. I found the qualifiers with my 2dEPB program that’s free to subscribers. The default settings did the trick, and quickly. After studying these races, you should have your early pace box pattern recognition skills in fine form.
May 10 – MNR – Race 3 – #4 – X
May 7 – PIM – Race 6 – #2 – 6.40
May 6 – CD – Race 5 – #5 – 20.40
May 2 – MNR – Race 8 – #7 – X
May 2 – HOL – Race 7 – #5 – X
May 2 – AP – Race 6 – #6 – 6.20
May 2 – AP – Race 3 – #6 – 7.60
May 1 – MNR – Race 4 – #9 – X
May 1 – EMD – Race 2 – #1 – 2nd
May 1 – PHA – Race 10 – #5 – X
May 1 – BEL – Race 2 – #7 – 5.50
April 28 – CD – Race 2 – #1 – 2nd
April 27 – MNR – Race 2 – #1 – X
April 26 – PHA – Race 3 – #4 – 3.60
April 25 – AQU – Race 5 – #2 – X
April 24 – HAW – Race 5 – #3 – 6.60
April 24 – TAM – Race 11 – #8 – X
April 22 – PEN – Race 8 – #7 – X
April 22 – EVD – Race 3 – #12 – 3.80
April 21 – HOL – Race 6 – #8 – 2nd
April 13 – SUN – Race 9 – #4 – 2.60 (the only pass due to odds)
April 13 – HAW – Race 1 – #3 – X
April 11 – AQU – Race 2 – #8 – 7.80
April 9 – MNR – Race 8 – #4 – 7.60
April 9 – OP – Race 6 – #12 – 2nd
April 9 – AQU – Race 8 – #3 – 6.40
April 9 – LRL – Race 2 – #2 – X
April 7 – EVD – Race 9 – #8 – X
April 7 – LRL – Race 2 – #1 – 4.20
April 6 – BEU – Race 1 – #2 – 5.40
April 5 – PHA – Race 5 – #6 – 5.20
April 3 – GG – Race 4 – #2 – 2nd
April 2 – OP – Race 9 – #4 – 4.80
March 30 – HAW – Race 6 – #1 – 6.80
March 29 – MNR – Race 9 – #5 – 6.20
March 27 – MNR – Race 3 – #5 – 5.40
March 25 – TP – Race 3 – #7 – 5.00
March 24 – HAW – Race 9 – #9 – X
March 23 – MNR – Race 8 – #3 – 21.20
March 23 – HAW – Race 9 – #6 – 4.00
March 21 – TP – Race 6 – #5 – 12.20
March 20 – FG – Race 7 – #7 – 4.40
March 16 – HAW – Race 2 – #3 – 5.20
March 15 – FG – Race 3 – #6 – 18.60
March 15 – PHA – Race 7 – #5 – 10.40
March 14 – TP – Race 9 – #8 – 8.60
*These are actual plays I’ve made since March 14. If you do the ROI math, you’ll see how powerful all of this is. Will it continue at this clip? Probably not. But I have lots of room to keep a very nice ROI going anyway.
No Mush, Please
Playing the Horses the Edgy Way
Print Version
I use two classifications for races, Edgy and Mushy. The Edgy types are the races that have horses that will be traveling in a comfortable pace environment. These environments include the extreme pace aberrations and the pace boxes. The Mushy races are the ones that have numerous horses traveling in the five different running style categories or races that do not qualify for a pace box match-up. In these races no horse has a pace picture advantage, therefore they are Mushy. I want Edgy races. These are the races that keep me in the black ink.
For example:
Edgy Race:
This race has an early pace box; that’s edgy to me. The three 2d early pace horses are in a comfort pace picture match-up.
Mushy Race:
Where’s the edge in this race? Nowhere, and therefore a Mushy Race. In other words, the pace picture match-up does not point to an advantaged running style.
Edgy and Mushy races are all about the pace picture match-up. Secondary factors, angles and the rest might get it done in the Mushy races but in my experience the ROI plummets along with the win percentage, and that’s not acceptable to me. But remember, I’m talking about win betting and pick 3 and 4 wagering, not bets of the vertical kind. I’m a win/horizontal player so this information is vital to my success…and sanity.
This approach means you’ll play fewer races but your win percentage and ROI will be higher. It takes discipline, though. If you need lots of action then playing exclusively the Edgy way is not for you.
Disclaimer: There are a number of ways to win at the races. This is just my way.
Free Program for PA Subscribers
Print Version
PaceAppraiser Newsletter 05.06.2010
Good news: We have a new standalone program that will locate early pace box horses in a flash. You can sort by CSFR (Competitive Speed Figure Range), FFR3+ (Form Factor Rating of 3 or better), 2dEPB (Early Pace Box horses along with Lone Early Pace Box qualifiers), PCZ (Horses that qualify in the Pace Comfort Zone category last race, and F6+ (Horse coming out of Key Pace Races starting at Fast 6).
With this small standalone program you can sort for the above factors in any combination in a split second. For example, I downloaded 10 tracks for today and found the Early Pace Box horses at all those tracks instantly. What a time saver. My goal has always been this: Find ways to process as much information as possible and as efficiently as possible; fast without oversights. If you want to find the Fast 6 horses, done. Looking only for Fast 6 and CSFR horses? Done…etc.
I’ve been testing the program since March 14th and it’s been doing the job spot on. As a matter of fact, I’ve been concentrating on Early Pace Box horses exclusively since that date. All I’ve had to do is download my files from BRIS, unzip them with UnPacker (You can download that unzip utility at PaceAppraiser Extra), launch the little program, load the folder where my BRIS files live, and there they are, listed and ready to print. From there I load the PaceAppraiser PPs and go directly to those races at the listed track and hit print. At this point, and this is important, I’m ready to look at the eligibility conditions and form cycles. Remember, this is not an automatic betting system but rather a very fast way to zero in on horses that will be traveling in a comfortable pace environment and qualify on the other important factors powered by the program. If you want you can drop the early pace box option and look at any other combination. For example, I like to look for Form Factor Rating 3+ horses that are coming out of a Fast 6 pace of the race velocity. That’s a good combination and one I’m adding to my pace box plays.
How to: Download the program zip file. Unzip it to your Desktop. Open the folder. Click the program and you’re ready to go. Jason and I are working on adding some additional factors to the program like surprise in the money finishes ($!), surprise pace race (PR+), superior pace figure horses (PF!), extreme pace match-up horses, all the horses that fit in pace boxes, which includes lone front-runners, lone pressers, and late pace advantaged horses. We’re also looking into adding all the factors to the web based PPs. Once we do that you won’t need the standalone program.
Please Note: You will need NET Framework 2.0 or higher to run the program. Check your Windows Updates or your Control Panel. Most computers are set to go so try the program first.
More good news: It’s FREE (for subscribers only).
Subscribers have been notified. If you’re a subscriber but didn’t receive the notification let me know and I’ll get the program to you ASAP. If you have any questions, I’ll be happy to answer them.
Regards,
Randy
Horse Racing, Baseball and Emotions
Print Version
“Showing emotion is just not done because baseball (horse racing) is such a humbling game. The exultation of success is going to be followed in short order by the cold slap of failure. Any team’s success. Anyone’s success. So why get high when a low is just around the corner. Baseball (horse racing) is a life best lived in an emotionally temperate zone.” Men At Work by George F. Will.
The Power of Pace Velocity Ratings
Print Version
Want to know how that speed figure was earned? What about flagging horses on the improve? Would you like to know a horse’s pace ability – how it handles a certain pace velocity? What about discovering the quality of the race a horse faced in the past? Want to uncover key pace races? Would like to build a new kind of pace shape? Well, you can do all of this with Pace Velocity Ratings. Here are the six important reasons that pace velocity ratings are so powerful.
1. Speed figures are influenced by pace velocity. The pace of the race velocity rating adjusts the “raw” speed figures. The data file version has two speed figures. The second one is the adjusted one. So what? Well, imagine a favorite with the best unadjusted speed figure in the field, a 100. Let’s say the pace was slow 5 in its last race. Depending on the speed figure vendor the adjusted speed figure could be a 92! Depending on the speed figures of the other horses in the field and the pace match-up, we have just exposed a false favorite. The betting public usually makes the top speed figure horse the favorite. Not always but most of the time. Without pace of the race velocity ratings you could not have adjusted the speed figure to expose the false favorite.
2. Just like stock market traders who are looking for stocks on the way up, handicappers are looking for horses on the upward side of their form cycle. Declining stocks and horses do not help the bottom line. So how does a pace velocity rating help in this regard? PaceAppraiser research shows that horses moving into the turn against a fast pace improve in subsequent races – especially in the maiden ranks. A fast pace plus a move into the turn is a flag for improving form. With pace of the race velocity ratings you will flag those horses for improvement.
3. Horses that stay close to the pace against a fast pace velocity rating and continue on to record par speed figures are the best horses in their class. These horses are more likely to succeed as they move up the class ladder. A par speed figure earned against a fast pace represents above average ability. So? How do you know? The velocity rating tells the tale. Simply check the velocity rating and position at the pace call. But remember, off pace horses (P/C, C) are disadvantaged if the pace of the race was slow. A Slow 5 does not help ordinary off pace horses come on late.
4. Check the pace of the race velocity rating and the speed figure of the winner. Superior races are fast at the pace call and par or better for the winner’s speed figure. How does this help the bottom line? It helps to know the quality of a race when Maiden Special Weights move into Non-Winners Allowance races. Slow pace Maiden winners routinely fail at the next higher class level if their win was against a slow pace. Plus, it’s simply fun to sit down with a stack of past performances and rate the quality of Stake Races, Graded and all.
5. Key pace races are Fast 5 and higher. These races routinely produce winners. So how do you use it? Simple. You must take a second look at any horse coming out of a Fast 5 and higher race. These are the best races, the highest quality, so make sure you don’t miss potential overlays. The Fast 5 flags these races.
6. The inverse relationship between pace and final time is revealed with pace shapes. Again, so what? Off pace horses that have “bad” last race pacelines could have been the recipient of a Slow/Fast pace shape. Not good. Fast/Slow would be ideal. Pace shapes give us that information. Here’s how to do it with pace of the race ratings: Note the pace rating, par or whatever, and the speed figure of the winner relative to par for that class. A Fast/Fast pace are the best. As I mentioned above off pace horses are disadvantaged when confronted with a pace shape of Slow/Fast. Using the pace of the race ratings and par speed figure charts creates a powerful tool to determine if a certain horse was at a pace disadvantage or not.
So there it is. A simple number that ends up as a powerful handicapping tool, an overlay producer.
