Impact Values, $NET and Graded Stakes Races
Print Version
I’ve had James Quinn’s book The Handicapper’s Stakes Festival sitting on my desk for a few months just as reminder that’s it time to give it go. Anyway, I decided to follow along this month with graded races, see what happens.
The plan: I wanted to know the impact value and net dollar amount for competitive speed figure range (CSRF) qualifiers (last two races) with a form factor rating of 3 or better (FFR3+). You can read about those PaceAppraiser factors on the main site and/or here on Extra.
Here are the results.
There have been 28 graded races this month so far
243 horses were entered in those graded races
72 of those horses qualified for CSFR and FFR3+
29.6% of the horses entered had the CSFR/FFR3+ combo
CSRF/FFR3+ combo produced 16 winners out of the 28 races for a win percentage of 57.1
Our Impact Value (divide the percentage of winners with a given characteristic by the percentage of starters with that characteristic) comes to 1.93 (1.00 means that horses won no more or less than their fair share of the races). So the CSFR/FFR3+ won almost twice their fair share of the races. That’s very good but if the winners were all favorites then that’s a big so what. After all, this game is all about making money not fancy impact values. So let’s look the $NET figure.
$2 bet on each of the 72 horses with the CSFR/FFR3+ characteristic = $144 invested
The gross return = $194.30
The profit = $50.30
$NET = 2.698
Or
34.9% return on investment on each dollar wagered. That’s good.
This is a very small sample but the results are very encouraging. Actually, I’m not surprised.
But can we do better if we only consider those CSRF/FFR3+ horses that will be racing in a 2D Early Pace Box or a Late Pace Box?
Those results:
We had 14 pace box races with 125 horse entered
14 of those horse qualified which means 11.4% of the horses entered had the CSRF/FFR3+/Pace Box characteristic (Only 1 per race in this sample)
This combination produced 42.8% winners (6 winners out of the 14 races)
Our Impact Value = 3.75! Remember, 1.00 means no more or less than their fair share of wins. (Winners – $3.20, $24.20, $21.20, $5.40, $12.40, $23.20)
$NET = 220% ROI for each dollar wagered! ($28 invested, $89.60 gross return, $61.60 profit)
Again, very small sample but incredible results. Actually this mirrors my experience – horses with a pace advantage win much more than their fair share of the races. And in this case much, much more.
In 2011 I’ll be following the graded stakes schedule with enthusiasm.
I want to reiterate: THESE ARE VERY SMALL SAMPLES but encouraging.
New PA Filter in Testing Phase
Print Version
We are now testing the newest version of the PaceAppraiser filtering program. I’m very excited about this version because it covers pace advantaged horses (including extreme pace picture scenarios) beyond the 2D Early Pace Box.
Here’s a quick rundown of some of the new features. Stay tuned for release date. We’ll post a very detailed tutorial to boot.
*Include turf races
Current features and category number:
1 – CSFR
2 – FFR3+
3 – 2dEPB
3 – 2dE
4 – PCZ
5 – F6+
5 – L1/L2
5 – PF!
5 – PR+
5 – !$
5 – $
N – New
NEW:
N – Surfaces – DRT/AW, TURF
3 – LE -> (Lone Early Front-runner) 5-8 speed points, E running style, only E in race
3 – Lone P -> only P running style in race
3 – P/C -> P/C running style
4 – PCZ 5.0 <= -> pcz less than or equal
4 – PCZ 5.0 > -> pcz greater than 5.0
5 – WLR -> won last race
5 – BWLR -> (Big Win Last Race) at first or second call, at least half length off pace but won race at 3 lengths or better
5 – SLR -> finished second in last race
1 – CSFR/1R -> competitive speed figure range qualified most recent race
2 – FFR 0-2 -> all FFR less than 3
5 – OXP -> layoff line above 3rd most recent race, 2nd most recent race finished in money, most recent race finished out of money = Layoff/good race/bad race form pattern
5 – 2S+R -> E or E/P running styles with 5-8 speed points, most recent and second most recent were sprints, today route race
N – LBPPG -> pace pressure gauge 25(left side) and greater (Late pace bias)
N – SPRT -> sprints (less than a mile) todays race
N – RTE -> routes (mile or greater) todays race
N – ML2/1- -> morning line of 2/1 or less
N – ML5/2+ -> morning line of 5/2 or greater
N – ML5/1+ -> morning line of 5/1 or greater
N – 20%T -> trainer at meet or year are 20% or greater win percentage
N – 20%J -> jockey at meet or year are 20% or greater win percentage
N – 20%JT -> jockey/trainer at meet or year are 20% or greater win percentage
N – TS+ -> check sire against db, TRF column 1 is 0 or 1 @ first or second time on the turf with powerful sire for this condition
1 – LST -> last 3 races are not CSFR, but CSFR is in remaining past performances (LE/Listed)
5 – CF/L2R -> finished in money in last race and finished closer to winner than in second most recent race
MDN -> MDN races (class of todays race) – Wd Sp Wt
MC -> MC races (class of todays race) – Md
CLM – CLM races (class of todays race) – Clm
Alw
OClm
Longshots and Breeders’ Cup Saturday
Print Version
Yesterday we had three longshots with one winner in that category – Eldaafer in the 5th race paid $23.20.
Today’s longshots:
Race 1 – Soldat (#9) at 8/1 morning line. The outside post position is a bit of a concern so make sure you get the 8/1 or better. This one’s pace comfort zone rating will help but still need the nice odds.
Race 5 – The Unsual Q. T. (#7) at 15/1 morning line. This one gets the lone presser role today. Should get comfortable trip in this match-up.
All the other races look to be chalky or top three betting choices or just stuff happens kind of races so we’ll look to nail another big one for a very nice longshot ROI and a successful Breeders’ Cup.
Longshots and Breeders’ Cup Friday
Print Version
Here are a few longshots, a couple of top three betting choices, and a legitimate favorite.
Let’s do the longshots first:
Race 5 – Eldaafer (#4) at 12/1 morning line. This race comes up with light pace pressure, which should fit Eldaafer just right.
Race 7 – Jessica Is Back (#11) at 12/1 morning line. Grade One winner with the right pace comfort zone for match-up.
Race 9 – Éclair De Lune (#2) at 15/1 morning line. Sports the most speed points in a race with zero confirmed front-runners.
Now for the mid-range odds contenders:
Race 8 – We have two contenders in this race. We’ll go with the best odds. R Heat Lightening (#3) at 4/1 morning line and Tell A Kelly (#12) at 9/2 morning line. Without early pace scratches these fit the match-up and class requirements.
Race 10 – Life At Ten (#1) at 7/2 morning line. This one is the best of the early pace types and sports a pace comfort zone rating that fits this match-up. Will need a good ride to hold off Blind Luck (#10) in the stretch.
And finally, the legitimate favorite:
Race 6 – Winter Memories (#7) at 2/1 morning line. Not a very inspiring bunch of 2 year olds for a Grade Two race so Winner Memories gets the call.
Stay tuned for Saturday’s thoughts…
New PaceAppraiser Filtering Program Coming Soon
Print Version
The newest version of the PaceAppraiser filtering program is in the final stages of development. This version will include over 30 filters! Stay tuned for release date and detailed information.
The Official Breeders’ Cup iPhone App
Print Version
Watch all 14 Breeders’ Cup World Championships races LIVE on November 5th and 6th on your iPhone with the Official Breeders’ Cup iPhone App. Until then, use the app to stay up-to-date on all the latest racing news, view the possible contenders for each division or watch any previous Breeders’ Cup race dating back to the inaugural event in 1984, among other things.
The Official Breeders’ Cup iPhone App includes:
WATCH
- Live video of all 14 races of the 2010 Breeders’ Cup
World Championships
- Video Vault: Every Breeders’ Cup World Championship race ever run (1984-2009). Whether you want to relive the excitement of Zenyatta’s thrilling win in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic or watch the very first Breeders’ Cup race in 1984, the video vault has it all.
CHAMPIONSHIP RACES
- Get all the information you need about all 14 Championship races, including past winners and 2010 contenders.
WAGERING INFO
- Not sure where to place your bets on the Breeders’ Cup? Our app uses your current location to map out all the simulcast sites in your area where you can wager on the Breeders’ Cup.
- Use our iPhone app Wagering Calculator to determine the cost of your Breeders’ Cup wagers
- Check out our Betting 101 guide to brush up on your track lingo.
TRACK INFO
- Important information regarding Churchill Downs, including seat/facility maps, post times and local weather.
FUN N’ GAMES
- Think you’re the ultimate Breeders’ Cup fan? Play our trivia game and post your scores to Facebook, Twitter or on our Worldwide Leader board to see who knows the most.
Small Sample But Interesting Results
Print Version
Here’s some interesting information that I’ve been following this month.
Out of 215 races that have CSFR, FFR3+ and !$ options checked they produced a 2% ROI. Nothing really special there but not bad when it was achieved using NO handicapping at all. The surprise in the money finish (!$) option will be included with the next utility update. Jason and I are working on that now. Let’s see if we can improve it the 2% ROI.
Out of those 215 races that had a PCZ (pace comfort zone rating) of 5.0 or less along with our CSFR/FFR+/!$ options gave us 157 plays and an improved 13% ROI. Better. Let’s continue to see if we can improve it even more.
Out of those 215 races that had the CSRF/FFR3+/PCZ 5.0 or less/!$ combo and the PCZ option that’s included in the present version of the utility added to the mix gave us 92 plays and a nice 33% ROI. Much better.
Remember, no handicapping at all, only those options. Remember too, we’re talking small samples here but it does look interesting. The PCZ 5.0 or less and the !$ options will be included in the next version of the utility.
Here are the options:
1. CSFR/FFR3+/!$ = +2% ROI
2. CSFR/FFR3+/PCZ 5.0 or less/!$ = +13% ROI
3. CSFR/FFR3+/PCZ 5.0 or less/PCZ/!$ = +33% ROI
So, this means to me that horses that qualify on competitive speed figures (they’re basically fast enough in terms of final time to be in the race), and have a form factor rating of 3 or better, and fit the pace comfort zone of the pace setter (a horse won’t fall out of its running style due to pace velocity), and have done their best running no more than 5 lengths off the pace at the second call, and showed enough improvement to finish in the money in the last race did very well in this sample. In other words, the closer to the pace at the second call the better a horse’s chance of winning. That makes sense in any kind of race, turtles included.
I’m still following along. We’ll see how it goes.
