A Red Red Flag
Print Version
Check out the image below. This horse went off at 6/5 but didn’t hit the board. Look for the big red flag.
The betting public loves these types of horses. Read the eligibility conditions and then check those last three races. This is the so-called class horse, right? Now look at the last pace of the race velocity rating (it’s in blue type). A Slow 10! That’s 10 lengths slower than average for that particular final time at Churchill Downs at six and a half furlongs. Now look at the running style (E/P-6) and the horse’s position at the second call. Leading by a head against that slow slow pace. There’s the red flag; a very weak pace velocity rating! When an early pace horse can’t keep things rolling against that kind of pace, throw them out without mercy. No win bet. No horizontal bet. No vertical bet. Save your money. Save your sanity. Look for red red flags.
How to Find Extreme Pace Horses Fast
Print Version
Click on the these links to see how fast you can find extreme pace advantaged horses with the PaceAppraiser PPs.
Your browser must have Flash plug-in installed to view.
Find Lone Early Pace here.
Find Late Pace here.
More clips to come…
New PA Filtering Program in Works
Print Version
Progress Update: We’re working on the new version of the PaceAppraiser Filtering Program. Here are the options that are in the works:
1. 20% trainer this year & meet
2. 20% jockey this year & meet
3. 20% trainer/jockey combo
4. Big win
5. Lone presser
6. Extreme late pace advantage
7. Pace Comfort Zone rating of 5.0 & less
8. Turf breeding database for first and second starts on turf
9. Top speed figure
10. Top adjusted speed figure
11. Distances (routes & sprints)
12. Maiden Claiming races
13. Maiden Special Weight races
14. Lone early
15. Bullet workouts
16. OX pattern
17. 1R, 2R & 3R (Competitive Speed Figure rankings)
18. 2nd place finish
19. Class drop
20. CP (Lowest class last three races)
21. Morning line ranges
22. Closer at finish improvement pattern
23. Turf races
24. Jockey change
These factors will be added to the 10 filters/factors we have now. Scroll down to read all about the current options. We’ll post detailed instructions soon. Stay tuned.
Make Money with the Wake Up Call.
Print Version
EC+/!$ @ FFR3+
!$: Surprise in the money finish last race out of last three races and fits the eligibility conditions of the race.
F+ Factor
1. !$ (PR+ extra added attraction) (PR+ = Surprise Pace Race – See articles on this site)
Speed Figure Requirements
1. 1R (Competitive Speed Figure Range Qualifier Last Race)
2. 2R (Competitive Speed Figure Range Qualifier Second Race)
Elimination Factors
1. No plays below ML 5/2
2. No extreme seconditis horses
3. No races with E/P8s unless qualifier is P/C type
4. No 7-12 post positions in routes for early pace types
5. No E/P 0-4
6. No PCZ over 5.0
7. No PCZ under 1.0 with more than 3 E/P 5-8s
8. No 7 furlong races or races beyond 1 mile and an 1/8th
9. No claiming 2 life time
10. No maiden races
11. No horses with 2 layoff lines in last three races
12. No long layoffs (over 3 months without trainer stats support)
13. No drops below claiming tag
14. No unsupported turf to dirt speed figures
15. No economically unsound class drops
16. No confirmed losers (2 for 32, etc.)
17. No repeated class drops without improvement
18. No cheaper tracks than host track
19. No distance problems (sprinter stretching out without EC support)
Hemingway and Racing
Print Version
HEMINGWAY
You go to the races?
INTERVIEWER
Yes, occasionally.
HEMINGWAY
Then you read the Racing Form…There you have the true art of fiction.
—Conversation in a Madrid café, May 1954
PA Utility Embedded Database Update
Print Version
We have embedded the database files into a single executable file (PaceAppraiser.exe). Subscribers can download it on the Java console page. Delete the the old one, unzip this one, place the executable on your desktop and you’re ready to go. We have included a desktop icon.
The next version will include the Lone Front Runner, the Lone Presser and the Late Pace Advantaged horses, which I call Carpetbaggers. So stay tuned for that release.
PaceAppraiser.exe version:
PA Filter Update
Print Version
The new filtering utility is ready to go. We’ve added five new options: Two dimensional early pace horses (2dE). Surprise pace races (PR+). Power pace figure pattern (PF!). First and second start off layoff (L1/L2). Speed figure range last race and second race back (1R/2R). I’ll go into these in a minute. As you probably remember, the early pace box horses are the most profitable. We want 2d early pace box qualifiers with a Form Factor Rating of 3 or better plus one of the 6 other factors.
Here’s some good news. I’ve added a 2dE option that will find all 2d early pace horses (5 or more speed points) even if they’re not in an early pace box. My research tells me that a Form Factor Rating of 3 or better is the way to go. Add one of these three pace factors to qualify the 2d early pace horse for best results – Fast 6 or better (F6+), surprise pace race (PR+), and the power pace figure pattern (PF!). Since these two dimensional early horses are not in a comfort pace box they need a “pace” factor helper, thus the F6+ and/or the PR+ and/or the PF! factor.
Take a look at the little utility and then I’ll go through each option.
CSFR: Fits competitive speed figure range.
FFR3+: Form Factor Rating of 3 or better.
2dEPB: Two dimensional early pace horse that will be racing in a comfort early pace match-up.
PCZ: Pace Comfort Zone qualifier.
F6+: Coming out of a race that was Fast 6 or faster at the second/pace call.
L1/L2: First or second start off a layoff.
PF!: A 2d early pace horse that has pace figures of 100 or better in last three races.
PR+: Surprise pace race last race.
!$: Surprise in the money finish last race.
2dE: All two dimensional horses that have 5 or more speed points.
Subscribers can download the update on their PA PPs page (Java applet page)
Please note:
The 1R and 2R options are not functioning due to more testing. The labels simply mean that the CSFR qualified in last race or second race back.
Download utility and replace the old paPP.exe with the new one. Keep the database files in the same folder.
