The Handicapper’s Lab by PaceAppraiser Release Date Set

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We will be releasing the newest version of our filtering program the first week of January 2011. This version has over 30 filters, which means there are literally hundreds of combinations to research and use in your daily handicapping. We have a new interface to boot. Jason and I are very excited about this project. The current version has been a great help to me and I can’t wait to work with this newest version. No more excuses for missing important factors now; the program just won’t allow it.

We have a new name for the program too – The Handicapper’s Lab by PaceAppraiser. It’s definitely a handicapping laboratory, and it’s definitely just plain fun to use. A detailed PDF file will be included in the download, so stay tuned.

P.S. Here are some research examples:
Want to know if there’s a lone front-runner in today’s card or cards? Done
How about a Lone Presser? Done
What about a Presser/Closer in a late pace bias race? Done
Want to know if there’s a key pace horse racing in a light early pace pressure race? Done
How about a 20% jockey/trainer combo coming out of a surprise money finish? Done
Want to know just a list of horses that have Pace Comfort Zone Rating of less than 5.0? Done
What about a list of horses that are over the PCZ of 5.0 for your exactas in the second spot? Done.
How about early pace horses coming out of two sprints and routing today? Done
Want to know only the horses that had a Big Win last race? Done
What about an OX bounce pattern off a layoff? Done
Want a list of horses that are coming out of key pace races and are 5/1 or higher morning line? Done

Well, you get the idea. This list goes on and on and on.

December 7, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

Graded Stakes and Pace Box Examples for November

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I’ve had some requests for the Pace Box winners and losers this month in the graded stakes races (see previous post). The date, track, race number, type of pace box and Pace Pressure Gauge ratings along with the winners and payoffs are listed below. These examples should get you started.

Nov. 5 – Churchill – Race 4 – 2D Early Pace Box – PPG 12 X 0 – #5 Colizeo – Finished 3rd

Nov. 5 – Churchill – Race 5 – 2D Early Pace Box – PPG 11 X 0 – #4 Eldaafer – Win $23.20

Nov. 5 – Churchill – Race 10 – Late Pace Box – PPG 34 X 0 – #10 Blind Luck – Finished 2nd

Nov. 6 – Churchill – Race 8 – Late Pace Box – PPG 28 X 0 – #5 Blame – Win $12.40

Nov. 13 – Churchill – Race 9 – Late Pace Box – PPG 33 X 0 – #7 Mister Marti Gras – Out

Nov. 20 – Churchill – Race 9 – Late Pace Box – PPG 27 X 1 – #5 Aruna – Win $5.40

Nov. 20 – Delta – Race 6 – Late Pace Box – PPG 38 X 1 – #8 Bouquet Booth – Win $21.20

Nov. 25 – Churchill – Race 11 – 2D Early Pace Box – PPG 13 X 0 – #4 Distinctive Dixie – Out

Nov. 26 – Churchill – Race 11 – Late Pace Box – PPG 26 X 1 – #4 Giant Oak – Win $24.20

Nov. 26 – Golden Gate – Race 8 – Late Pace Box – PPG 23 X 1 – #5 Hot Chaco – Finished 2nd

Nov. 27 – Hollywood – Race 9 – Late Pace Box – PPG 25 X 0 – #8 Court Vision – Out

Nov. 27 – Churchill – Race 9 – 2D Early Pace Box – PPG 16 X 0 – #1 Aide – Out

Nov. 27 – Aqueduct – Race 7 – 2D Early Pace Box – PPG 19 X 0 – #5 To Honor And Serve – Win $3.20

November 30, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

Impact Values, $NET and Graded Stakes Races

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I’ve had James Quinn’s book The Handicapper’s Stakes Festival sitting on my desk for a few months just as reminder that’s it time to give it go. Anyway, I decided to follow along this month with graded races, see what happens.

The plan: I wanted to know the impact value and net dollar amount for competitive speed figure range (CSRF) qualifiers (last two races) with a form factor rating of 3 or better (FFR3+). You can read about those PaceAppraiser factors on the main site and/or here on Extra.

Here are the results.

There have been 28 graded races this month so far

243 horses were entered in those graded races

72 of those horses qualified for CSFR and FFR3+

29.6% of the horses entered had the CSFR/FFR3+ combo

CSRF/FFR3+ combo produced 16 winners out of the 28 races for a win percentage of 57.1

Our Impact Value (divide the percentage of winners with a given characteristic by the percentage of starters with that characteristic) comes to 1.93 (1.00 means that horses won no more or less than their fair share of the races). So the CSFR/FFR3+ won almost twice their fair share of the races. That’s very good but if the winners were all favorites then that’s a big so what. After all, this game is all about making money not fancy impact values. So let’s look the $NET figure.

$2 bet on each of the 72 horses with the CSFR/FFR3+ characteristic = $144 invested

The gross return = $194.30

The profit = $50.30

$NET = 2.698

Or

34.9% return on investment on each dollar wagered. That’s good.

This is a very small sample but the results are very encouraging. Actually, I’m not surprised.

But can we do better if we only consider those CSRF/FFR3+ horses that will be racing in a 2D Early Pace Box or a Late Pace Box?

Those results:

We had 14 pace box races with 125 horse entered

14 of those horse qualified which means 11.4% of the horses entered had the CSRF/FFR3+/Pace Box characteristic (Only 1 per race in this sample)

This combination produced 42.8% winners (6 winners out of the 14 races)

Our Impact Value = 3.75! Remember, 1.00 means no more or less than their fair share of wins. (Winners – $3.20, $24.20, $21.20, $5.40, $12.40, $23.20)

$NET = 220% ROI for each dollar wagered! ($28 invested, $89.60 gross return, $61.60 profit)

Again, very small sample but incredible results. Actually this mirrors my experience – horses with a pace advantage win much more than their fair share of the races. And in this case much, much more.

In 2011 I’ll be following the graded stakes schedule with enthusiasm.

I want to reiterate: THESE ARE VERY SMALL SAMPLES but encouraging.

November 28, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

New PA Filter in Testing Phase

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We are now testing the newest version of the PaceAppraiser filtering program. I’m very excited about this version because it covers pace advantaged horses (including extreme pace picture scenarios) beyond the 2D Early Pace Box.

Here’s a quick rundown of some of the new features. Stay tuned for release date. We’ll post a very detailed tutorial to boot.

*Include turf races

Current features and category number:
1 – CSFR

2 – FFR3+

3 – 2dEPB
3 – 2dE

4 – PCZ

5 – F6+
5 – L1/L2
5 – PF!
5 – PR+
5 – !$
5 – $

N – New

NEW:

N – Surfaces – DRT/AW, TURF
3 – LE -> (Lone Early Front-runner) 5-8 speed points, E running style, only E in race
3 – Lone P -> only P running style in race
3 – P/C -> P/C running style
4 – PCZ 5.0 <= -> pcz less than or equal
4 – PCZ 5.0 > -> pcz greater than 5.0
5 – WLR -> won last race
5 – BWLR -> (Big Win Last Race) at first or second call, at least half length off pace but won race at 3 lengths or better
5 – SLR -> finished second in last race
1 – CSFR/1R -> competitive speed figure range qualified most recent race
2 – FFR 0-2 -> all FFR less than 3
5 – OXP -> layoff line above 3rd most recent race, 2nd most recent race finished in money, most recent race finished out of money = Layoff/good race/bad race form pattern
5 – 2S+R -> E or E/P running styles with 5-8 speed points, most recent and second most recent were sprints, today route race
N – LBPPG -> pace pressure gauge 25(left side) and greater (Late pace bias)
N – SPRT -> sprints (less than a mile) todays race
N – RTE -> routes (mile or greater) todays race
N – ML2/1- -> morning line of 2/1 or less
N – ML5/2+ -> morning line of 5/2 or greater
N – ML5/1+ -> morning line of 5/1 or greater
N – 20%T -> trainer at meet or year are 20% or greater win percentage
N – 20%J -> jockey at meet or year are 20% or greater win percentage
N – 20%JT -> jockey/trainer at meet or year are 20% or greater win percentage
N – TS+ -> check sire against db, TRF column 1 is 0 or 1 @ first or second time on the turf with powerful sire for this condition
1 – LST -> last 3 races are not CSFR, but CSFR is in remaining past performances (LE/Listed)
5 – CF/L2R -> finished in money in last race and finished closer to winner than in second most recent race

MDN -> MDN races (class of todays race) – Wd Sp Wt
MC -> MC races (class of todays race) – Md
CLM – CLM races (class of todays race) – Clm
Alw
OClm

November 14, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

Longshots and Breeders’ Cup Saturday

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Yesterday we had three longshots with one winner in that category – Eldaafer in the 5th race paid $23.20.

Today’s longshots:

Race 1Soldat (#9) at 8/1 morning line. The outside post position is a bit of a concern so make sure you get the 8/1 or better. This one’s pace comfort zone rating will help but still need the nice odds.

Race 5The Unsual Q. T. (#7) at 15/1 morning line. This one gets the lone presser role today. Should get comfortable trip in this match-up.

All the other races look to be chalky or top three betting choices or just stuff happens kind of races so we’ll look to nail another big one for a very nice longshot ROI and a successful Breeders’ Cup.

November 6, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

Longshots and Breeders’ Cup Friday

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Here are a few longshots, a couple of top three betting choices, and a legitimate favorite.

Let’s do the longshots first:

Race 5Eldaafer (#4) at 12/1 morning line. This race comes up with light pace pressure, which should fit Eldaafer just right.

Race 7Jessica Is Back (#11) at 12/1 morning line. Grade One winner with the right pace comfort zone for match-up.

Race 9Éclair De Lune (#2) at 15/1 morning line. Sports the most speed points in a race with zero confirmed front-runners.

Now for the mid-range odds contenders:

Race 8 – We have two contenders in this race. We’ll go with the best odds. R Heat Lightening (#3) at 4/1 morning line and Tell A Kelly (#12) at 9/2 morning line. Without early pace scratches these fit the match-up and class requirements.

Race 10Life At Ten (#1) at 7/2 morning line. This one is the best of the early pace types and sports a pace comfort zone rating that fits this match-up. Will need a good ride to hold off Blind Luck (#10) in the stretch.

And finally, the legitimate favorite:

Race 6Winter Memories (#7) at 2/1 morning line. Not a very inspiring bunch of 2 year olds for a Grade Two race so Winner Memories gets the call.

Stay tuned for Saturday’s thoughts…

November 5, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

New PaceAppraiser Filtering Program Coming Soon

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The newest version of the PaceAppraiser filtering program is in the final stages of development. This version will include over 30 filters! Stay tuned for release date and detailed information.

November 1, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments