PA Utility Embedded Database Update

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We have embedded the database files into a single executable file (PaceAppraiser.exe). Subscribers can download it on the Java console page. Delete the the old one, unzip this one, place the executable on your desktop and you’re ready to go. We have included a desktop icon.

The next version will include the Lone Front Runner, the Lone Presser and the Late Pace Advantaged horses, which I call Carpetbaggers. So stay tuned for that release.

PaceAppraiser.exe version:

June 22, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

PA Filter Update

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The new filtering utility is ready to go. We’ve added five new options: Two dimensional early pace horses (2dE). Surprise pace races (PR+). Power pace figure pattern (PF!). First and second start off layoff (L1/L2). Speed figure range last race and second race back (1R/2R). I’ll go into these in a minute. As you probably remember, the early pace box horses are the most profitable. We want 2d early pace box qualifiers with a Form Factor Rating of 3 or better plus one of the 6 other factors.

Here’s some good news. I’ve added a 2dE option that will find all 2d early pace horses (5 or more speed points) even if they’re not in an early pace box. My research tells me that a Form Factor Rating of 3 or better is the way to go. Add one of these three pace factors to qualify the 2d early pace horse for best results – Fast 6 or better (F6+), surprise pace race (PR+), and the power pace figure pattern (PF!). Since these two dimensional early horses are not in a comfort pace box they need a “pace” factor helper, thus the F6+ and/or the PR+ and/or the PF! factor.

Take a look at the little utility and then I’ll go through each option.

CSFR: Fits competitive speed figure range.

FFR3+: Form Factor Rating of 3 or better.

2dEPB: Two dimensional early pace horse that will be racing in a comfort early pace match-up.

PCZ: Pace Comfort Zone qualifier.

F6+: Coming out of a race that was Fast 6 or faster at the second/pace call.

L1/L2: First or second start off a layoff.

PF!: A 2d early pace horse that has pace figures of 100 or better in last three races.

PR+: Surprise pace race last race.

!$: Surprise in the money finish last race.

2dE: All two dimensional horses that have 5 or more speed points.

Subscribers can download the update on their PA PPs page (Java applet page)

Please note:

The 1R and 2R options are not functioning due to more testing. The labels simply mean that the CSFR qualified in last race or second race back.

Download utility and replace the old paPP.exe with the new one. Keep the database files in the same folder.

Related information here.

June 18, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

My Early Pace Box Worksheet

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The following worksheet is the same one I use daily to spot prime early pace box horses. Make sure your early pace box horse fits the conditions of eligibility; that’s very important to this approach. Read these articles for definitions and procedures:

Article 1
Article 2
Article 3

EC+/F+ @ FFR 3+ @ E/P 5-7 @ Early Pace Boxes

The equation:
EC – Eligibility conditions qualifier.
F+ – Has one of the following additional factors
FFR 3+ – Has a Form Factor Rating of 3 or better
E/P 5-7 – Has a two dimensional early pace running style along with 5 to 7 speed points
Early Pace Boxes – The 2D Early Pace Box or the Lone 2D Early Pace Box

F+ Factors
1. L1 or L2 (First or second start off layoff)
2. CP (Lowest class level out of last three races – see elimination factors below)
3. PF! (Last three PA pace figures 100 or better)
4. F6+ (Last race was a Fast 6 or faster)
5. PR+ (Surprise pace race)
6. !$ (Surprise in the money finish)

Speed Figure Requirements
(Must have at least one of the following. In the PA PPs they are in bold type)
1. 1R (Competitive speed figure range qualifier last race)
2. 2R (Competitive speed figure range qualifier second race back)

Elimination Factors
1. No races with E/P8s (We don’t want early pace horses blowing the match-up advantage)
2. No 7-12 post positions in routes (We need a pace comfort zone the easy way)
3. No E/P 0-4 (We only want horses that have good or better early speed)
4. No 3rd place finishes without !$ or CP support (My research shows a third place finisher needs a helper)
5. No 7 furlong races or races beyond 1 mile and an 1/8th (Too long on right lead at 7 and breeding required beyond 9 furlongs)
6. No claiming 2 life time without CP support (Research says 2 lifetime needs a helper)
7. No last race winners (We’re looking for improving horses, not peaked horses)
8. No horses with 2 layoff lines out of the last three races (Somethings wrong, pass)
9. No long layoffs (Three months is my limit)
10. No drops below claiming tag (Makes no economic sense, pass)
11. No unsupported turf to dirt speed figures (If it’s dirt, I want dirt figures)
12. No economically unsound class drops (If the trainer quit then…)
13. No confirmed losers (2 for 32, etc.) (If the horse has no desire then I have no desire)
14. No repeated class drops without improvement (“Maybe this will work” is not a prime situation)
15. No cheaper tracks than host track (PRM to BEL, no thank you)
16. No distance problems (Sprinter stretching out without EC – eligibility conditions – support is a bad idea)
17. No turf races (This is my dirt approach)

“Paper trade it” and see why I search all over the country for these “class and pace” advantaged horses. If you’re a simulcast player like me, look for about 250 per year. That’s 4.8 prime, and I mean prime, plays per week.

Note: We’re just about ready to release the new update to the PaceAppraiser Early Pace Box utility.

June 4, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

The PaceAppraiser Utility Update

Print Version Print Version
Jason and I are just about ready to release the new standalone program/utility, which will include the improving form factors for layoffs, superior pace figures, surprise pace races, and surprise money finishes. The program will also include some “beware” and “no go” factors. We’re also adding a nicer interface to the program. We want it to look nice and work nice.

With the add-on program you can sort through many different combinations of factors. Today I used the program to look for the CSFR, FFR 3+, PCZ combination. So far 3 winners, one loser. I looked at each horse in the sorted list and simply qualified it for eligibility conditions with the PaceAppraiser PPs, which includes stable form or improving form.

CSFR – Competitive Speed Figure Range qualifier
FFR 3+ – PaceAppraiser Form Factor Rating of 3 or better
PCZ – Horse fits today’s Pace Comfort Zone requirement
EC+ – Eligibility Conditions and Form qualifier

So stay tuned. Give us a few more days… The program is free for current subscribers. You can get the scoop on the present version here. Subscribers can download the program (Download Link) from their welcome screen after log in. (Free to current subscribers only)

Regards,

Randy Giles
www.paceappraiser.com

P.S. The next version after this release will include the extreme pace boxes (early and late pace) along with the lone presser pace box, which will be added to the pace boxes that we have now, the 2d Early Pace Box and the Lone 2d Early Pace Box. We’re working on it but will take a little more time. Stay tuned for that one as well.

May 25, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

New Update in the Works

Print Version Print Version

We have an update in the works for our standalone utility. Jason and I will be working on it this weekend. The important surprise pace race factor will be included along with a couple more. As you’ve probably read here at PaceAppraiser Extra we have plans to complete the utility with the extreme pace, lone presser and late pace advantaged horses. We’re also working on a new interface for the utility. So stay tuned for the release announcement. Subscribers will be notified.

May 13, 2010 • Posted in: Updates • No Comments

Early Pace Box Winners since March 14

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I’ve had numerous requests for a list of early pace box qualifiers. I’ve listed them below*. Read this and this and this and this first. I found the qualifiers with my 2dEPB program that’s free to current subscribers. The default settings did the trick, and quickly. After studying these races, you should have your early pace box pattern recognition skills in fine form.

May 10 – MNR – Race 3 – #4 – X
May 7 – PIM – Race 6 – #2 – 6.40
May 6 – CD – Race 5 – #5 – 20.40
May 2 – MNR – Race 8 – #7 – X
May 2 – HOL – Race 7 – #5 – X
May 2 – AP – Race 6 – #6 – 6.20
May 2 – AP – Race 3 – #6 – 7.60
May 1 – MNR – Race 4 – #9 – X
May 1 – EMD – Race 2 – #1 – 2nd
May 1 – PHA – Race 10 – #5 – X
May 1 – BEL – Race 2 – #7 – 5.50
April 28 – CD – Race 2 – #1 – 2nd
April 27 – MNR – Race 2 – #1 – X
April 26 – PHA – Race 3 – #4 – 3.60
April 25 – AQU – Race 5 – #2 – X
April 24 – HAW – Race 5 – #3 – 6.60
April 24 – TAM – Race 11 – #8 – X
April 22 – PEN – Race 8 – #7 – X
April 22 – EVD – Race 3 – #12 – 3.80
April 21 – HOL – Race 6 – #8 – 2nd
April 13 – SUN – Race 9 – #4 – 2.60 (the only pass due to odds)
April 13 – HAW – Race 1 – #3 – X
April 11 – AQU – Race 2 – #8 – 7.80
April 9 – MNR – Race 8 – #4 – 7.60
April 9 – OP – Race 6 – #12 – 2nd
April 9 – AQU – Race 8 – #3 – 6.40
April 9 – LRL – Race 2 – #2 – X
April 7 – EVD – Race 9 – #8 – X
April 7 – LRL – Race 2 – #1 – 4.20
April 6 – BEU – Race 1 – #2 – 5.40
April 5 – PHA – Race 5 – #6 – 5.20
April 3 – GG – Race 4 – #2 – 2nd
April 2 – OP – Race 9 – #4 – 4.80
March 30 – HAW – Race 6 – #1 – 6.80
March 29 – MNR – Race 9 – #5 – 6.20
March 27 – MNR – Race 3 – #5 – 5.40
March 25 – TP – Race 3 – #7 – 5.00
March 24 – HAW – Race 9 – #9 – X
March 23 – MNR – Race 8 – #3 – 21.20
March 23 – HAW – Race 9 – #6 – 4.00
March 21 – TP – Race 6 – #5 – 12.20
March 20 – FG – Race 7 – #7 – 4.40
March 16 – HAW – Race 2 – #3 – 5.20
March 15 – FG – Race 3 – #6 – 18.60
March 15 – PHA – Race 7 – #5 – 10.40
March 14 – TP – Race 9 – #8 – 8.60

*These are actual plays I’ve made since March 14. If you do the ROI math, you’ll see how powerful all of this is. Will it continue at this clip? Probably not. But I have lots of room to keep a very nice ROI going anyway.

May 12, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments

No Mush, Please

Playing the Horses the Edgy Way

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I use two classifications for races, Edgy and Mushy. The Edgy types are the races that have horses that will be traveling in a comfortable pace environment. These environments include the extreme pace aberrations and the pace boxes. The Mushy races are the ones that have numerous horses traveling in the five different running style categories or races that do not qualify for a pace box match-up. In these races no horse has a pace picture advantage, therefore they are Mushy. I want Edgy races. These are the races that keep me in the black ink.

For example:

Edgy Race:

This race has an early pace box; that’s edgy to me. The three 2d early pace horses are in a comfort pace picture match-up.

Mushy Race:

Where’s the edge in this race? Nowhere, and therefore a Mushy Race. In other words, the pace picture match-up does not point to an advantaged running style.

Edgy and Mushy races are all about the pace picture match-up. Secondary factors, angles and the rest might get it done in the Mushy races but in my experience the ROI plummets along with the win percentage, and that’s not acceptable to me. But remember, I’m talking about win betting and pick 3 and 4 wagering, not bets of the vertical kind. I’m a win/horizontal player so this information is vital to my success…and sanity.

This approach means you’ll play fewer races but your win percentage and ROI will be higher. It takes discipline, though. If you need lots of action then playing exclusively the Edgy way is not for you.

Disclaimer: There are a number of ways to win at the races. This is just my way.

May 11, 2010 • Posted in: Articles • No Comments