Additional PaceAppraiser PP tools...
- Know which horses can handle the fastest pace.
- Save time so you can handicap more tracks.
- Information that's already included in other information out of your way.
- Know when an "opposites attract" exacta is at hand.
- Recognize false favorites due to pace disadvantage.
- Process the important information.
- Know when an extreme pace aberration has appeared and quickly.
- Know the horses that will be racing in stress free zones.
- Know the races where the most chaos rules.
- Easily integrate your own style of handicapping.
Please note: The PA PPs require Java version 6. If you don't have Java on your computer (check Control Panel), you can download it (free) at the Java website. Currently, only 64-bit Apples support Java 6. AOL members must use Internet Explorer or FireFox.
Here's a list of those new added attractions you won't find in any other past performances in our industry. Download definitions and examples PDF file here.
- The Original VG Online Add-on - View VG Online PDF example here. - The VG Online feature can be accessed with the “Reduce” check box and Display button. This is a condensed version of the PA PPs. We’ve had some subscribers ask for this feature because it makes it easier to use with spreadsheets. The original version did not include the pace picture; this one does.
- The Pace Box Highlighter - We don’t want to overlook those important pace boxes; the Pace Box Highlighter will help. Just click on the running style and speed points combo of the horse or horses in the pace picture to create the pace box. If you are printing with a color printer the highlight will be yellow. Laser printers will be light grey. « Click here to learn about Pace Box strategies »
- The Form Factor Rating - The Form Factor Rating is made up of 8 factors, which includes improving form patterns, jockey/trainer combo stats, single jockey stats and single trainer stats. The higher the number the better. The highest rating is 8; you won’t see many of these but you will see 5s and 6s, which should grab your attention when numbers are no higher than 3. In competitive races, those races with more than 3 CSFR qualifiers, you’ll find this rating a helpful tool with odds assessment. For example, in a recent race the favorite had a FFR of 3 and was 6/5 one minute to post; another contender with a FFR of 5 won the race and paid $11.20. You’ll find situations like this one often, which should answer any questions about anecdotal outcomes. You’ll also see a lot of races with clustered ratings in the 2 and 3 neighborhood, no real advantage. I look for horses with pace advantages, which includes extreme pace and pace box advantages, that have the best or one of the best FFRs in the race. Please remember that the lower the odds the more risk management we need; the Form Factor Rating will be a useful tool in that area. For example, I will wager on a pace advantaged horse with a relatively low FFR if the odds are excellent – not with mush races and low odds, however. The general rule is this: the lower the odds the higher the FFR should be; the higher the odds then relatively low FFRs are acceptable. As with every handicapping tool, they are the most useful when building contender lists and assessing odds.
- Competitive Speed Figure Range (CSFR) – You'll know quickly which horse or horses qualify for final time ability in today's race.
- Pace Pressure Gauge (PPG) – The Pace Pressure Gauge is made up of two components, pace pressure and pace velocity. The gauge points to the pace match-up bias. The Pace Pressure Gauge is calibrated early because over 60% of all races, regardless of distance, are won by early pace running styles. The gauge output will look something like this: 34 X 1. Of course there are many possibilities. The first number represents pace pressure and is generated by the number of early pace horses (E, E/P, P) with 5 or more Quirin speed points. The second rating is generated by the number of one dimensional early pace horses (E) with 5 or more speed points. When the Pace Pressure Gauge exceeds 21 in the pressure reading, the pace bias has shifted slightly to a late pace bias. The higher the numbers the more likely the race will go to our P/Cs and Cs. Conversely, the lower the numbers the more likely the race will be won by our Es and E/Ps. The Pace Pressure Gauge is also a tool to help you assess value. For example, if you must play a horse that is facing a pace match-up bias that's not in its favor, add points to the odds you're willing to take.
- Pace Picture – A simple diagram of running styles and raw Quirin speed points. You could say, too, they are diagrams of equine psychology and physiology. They represent a right brain view of a race, a holistic view, a zoomed out view. The pace picture also includes mouse over tool tips for horse number, morning line, and pace comfort zone. This powerful tool will show you where the most pace pressure is and which horse has the advantage. Plus, you'll know which races are the most chaotic and therefore should be approached with extra caution. You'll also know which horses in the pace picture are competitive speed figure range qualifiers; they will be listed in bold print.
- PaceAppraiser Running Styles – Accurate and dependable running styles. There are 7 running styles listed in the pace picture: E – E/C – E/P – E/P/C – P – P/C – C. These are NOT BRIS or TSN running styles. Please see the FAQ page for more information.
- Raw Quirin Speed Points – Each horse starts with one Quirin speed. The last three to five pacelines are checked and added if they qualify. This abbreviated approach compresses the pace pressure gauge for more accurate readings.
- Pace Comfort Zones (PCZ) – This is the superscript number after the speed points. An important question is: When a horse runs its best races how many lengths off the pace was it, and will that number help or hinder it in today's race? As you analyze the pace picture, the pace comfort will show you which horses have the most depth of talent relative to their running style. As pace pressure increases the horses with the best PCZ rating have the advantage.
- PaceAppraiser Pace Figures (PF) - The PA pace figures are not your regular run of the mill pace figures. They're designed to help us visualize where the horse was positioned in the herd at the pace call. For example, let's say the pace velocity rating is Fast 4 and the pace figure is 103. Simply subtract the velocity rating from the pace figure and it will tell you the number of beaten lengths at the pace call. In this case the horse was one length off of the leader at the second call (Par is 100). Easy. We just reverse the process for slow pace races. For example, let's say the pace was Slow 3 and the pace figure was 93. You simply add the pace of the race velocity rating to the pace figure and you'll know that the horse was four lengths off the pace at the second call. Yeah but...do they work just out of the box without all the adding and subtracting? They do. You could say, like some investors like to put it, the pace of the race velocity has been discounted in the pace figure, and that's good. We should never use any kind of pace figures, including the VG brand, without consulting the horse's running style.
- Pace of the Race Velocity Ratings (PVR) - Whether you want to know the pace ability of a particular horse, the race shape, or if a horse should improve this time out, or if a race is a key pace race, or if that 103 speed figure that towers over the field is for real, the Pace Velocity Rating will inform you. The PVR tells us how fast the pace of the race was for any particular final time. If a horse was not able to keep up, check the PVR; the pace of the race may have been too fast for the horse's ability. This situation creates a "dirty" paceline and can help players uncover overlays.
- BRIS/TSN Adjusted Speed Figures (SF) – The BRIS or TSN speed figures are adjusted for pace of the race velocity. You'll notice that a fast pace will enhance the raw figure, while a slow pace will slow the fig down. Pace of the race velocity fine tunes the fig.
Visit the FAQ section for more detailed information...click here.
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(You must purchase single data files from BRIS or TSN)
(You must purchase single data files from BRIS or TSN)